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The New York Yankees take on the Toronto Blue Jays. Check out our MLB odds series for our Yankees-Blue Jays pick and prediction.
The pitching matchup for this game: Nestor Cortes of the Yankees goes against Yusei Kikuchi of the Blue Jays. MLB odds experts can paint a very clear picture from this pair of starters.
Cortes brings a 1.31 ERA into this game. He has been outstanding for the Pinstripes in the first month of the season. Cortes struck out 12 Baltimore Orioles in just five innings on April 17. This is much better than the back-end-of-the-rotation pitcher he was expected to be going into the 2022 season. He is pitching more like a No. 2 starter behind Gerrit Cole. It's a significant reason why the Yankees have the best record in baseball. Keep that in mind when making a Yankees Blue Jays prediction.
It has been a rough 2022 season for Kikuchi, who spent last year with the Seattle Mariners. Kikuchi has lacked command throughout this season. He is hoping that May will solve his woes and leave them behind in April. Kikuchi walked 13 batters in 14 2/3 innings. He is not an overpowering pitcher. He depends on precise location to get hitters off balance. Without good control and command, Kikuchi is a sitting duck, and his 5.52 ERA reflects that. With Hyun-Jin Ryu injured and ineffective, the Blue Jays badly need Kikuchi to find good form and provide more depth to a pitching staff which has been very good this season, but won't be able to hold down opposing lineups forever. The MLB odds won't be kind to the Jays if they don't get more from Kikuchi and Ryu.
Beyond the pitching matchup, this game is a test of the laws of averages. The Yankees are going to lose again at some point, but it seems impossible right now. They have won 11 in a row and have given the Blue Jays their first series loss of 2022 by winning the first two games of this series. The Yankees were feasting on the Orioles and Royals, but this is a road series win over a very good Toronto team. This is part of the calculus in a Yankees Blue Jays pick.
The Blue Jays have been roughed up by the Yankees in this series, but they are still 15-10 and are in good shape. It is notable that Toronto has already played 19 games against 2021 playoff teams, the Yankees, Astros, and Red Sox. This game will be the 20th such game. Toronto has had one of the toughest first-month schedules of any team, whereas the Yankees have already played six games against the Orioles. Toronto trails the Yankees in the standings but has a much easier schedule ahead.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Yankees-Blue Jays MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Yankees-Blue Jays Odds
New York Yankees: -1.5 (+114)
Toronto Blue Jays: +1.5 (-134)
Over: 8 (-120)
Under: 8 (-102)
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Why The Yankees Could Cover the Spread
The pitching matchup is stacked in their favor, and it's not even close. Cortes has been awesome and Kikuchi has been terrible. There's no need to overthink the Yankees Blue Jays odds.
Why The Blue Jays Could Cover the Spread
The Yankees have won 11 in a row. They're due for a loss. Also, the Blue Jays have not had a good offensive performance in any of their last four games, scoring a total of eight runs in those four contests. This talented lineup is due for some BABIP luck.
Final Yankees-Blue Jays Prediction & Pick
The Yankees are going to lose at some point, but the Cortes-Kikuchi matchup is too lopsided to merit a Blue Jay (or anti-Yankee) pick. Take New York here.
Final Yankees-Blue Jays Prediction & Pick: Yankees -1.5
