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The New York Yankees will travel to the West Coast for a three-game series against the Seattle Mariners starting Tuesday. Both teams are desperately fighting to make up as much ground in their respective divisions before the All-Star break hits. The Yankees have lost three straight series, while the Mariners have scored victories in their last six series played. This game is set to be a good one, so it's time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Yankees-Mariners prediction and pick.
Before we get into the pick, let's see how the bookmakers have set the lines for the game.
MLB Odds: Yankees-Mariners Odds
New York Yankees ML (-161)
Seattle Mariners ML (+148)
Over 9 1/2 runs (-111)
Under 9 1/2 runs (-109)
Why The Yankees Could Cover The Spread
The Yankees usually have an advantage against opposing pitchers due to the strength of their lineup, and Tuesday's game is no different. The Mariners are sending Justus Sheffield out to the mound, something the Bronx Bombers should be very excited about.
Sheffield has struggled all season long, but it has gotten even worse in his last seven starts. In that span, the lefty has put up an ERA of 7.36 and a WHIP of 2.00. Sheffield is extremely prone to giving up home runs, something that won't play well against a New York team that ranks inside the top 10 in the MLB in home runs hit. He also struggles with his control, walking multiple batters in almost every game he has started. The Yankees rank second in the league in walks drawn, so this matchup is perfect for them.
Just when you thought things couldn't get any better for the Yankees, their stats against left-handed pitching come into play. New York's batting average, slugging percentage, and OPS all rise when they face a lefty. The Yankees are also significantly better offensively when playing on the road, with boosts across the board to all offensive stats when they play away from Yankee Stadium.
Why The Mariners Could Cover The Spread
Seattle may have a pitching problem, but the Yankees do too. New York is trusting Jameson Taillon in this one, which hasn't typically worked out well for the Yankees.
Taillon holds a season-long ERA of 5.34 and a WHIP of 1.36, with his stats from his recent starts not being much better. The Mariners have been decent offensively lately, so they should be able to ding Taillon early in the game. It helps that Seattle's OBP and OPS both rise when facing right-handed pitching.
Another factor to take into account is fatigue. The Yankees are coming off a day off, but they just pitched a bullpen game against the New York Mets on Sunday. If Taillon isn't able to go far into this game, a New York bullpen that has struggled recently will have to pitch short-handed.
Final Yankees-Mariners Prediction & Pick
In a game where neither team has a good pitcher on the mound, I'll take the over. The Yankees should absolutely clobber Sheffield early in the game, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Mariners knock in some runs off Taillon either. There's a chance that the Yankees break this over on their own, but I think it will happen with some contributions from Seattle. Betting on the Yankees is also a solid pick here.
FINAL PICK: Over 9 1/2 runs (-111)
