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The New York Yankees and Kansas City Royals will begin a three-game series on Monday night. It's time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Yankees-Royals prediction and pick.
The Yankees clearly still count themselves as a playoff team, as they just added a variety of players at the trade deadline. Unfortunately for New York, the excitement of these additions has been cut short by a rash of coronavirus cases and injuries. They remain only 6.5 games out of first place in the AL East, so a run at the division title is certainly within reach. Unfortunately for the Royals, the same can't be said for them. Kansas City is 17 games out of first place, so it's safe to say their season won't include the playoffs.
Here's how the bookmakers have set the lines for Monday's series opener.
MLB Odds: Yankees-Royals Odds
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New York Yankees ML (-172)
Kansas City Royals ML (+158)
Over 10 runs (-110)
Under 10 runs (-110)
Why The Yankees Could Win
The Yankees may be decimated by injuries, but they'll still send a very capable pitcher to the mound on Monday Jameson Taillon will make the start for the Bronx Bombers. Taillon's season-long stats aren't great, but his recent stretch of games has been fantastic. Over his last seven starts, Taillon has earned a 2.32 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP, two truly elite numbers. He's undefeated in that span, and that streak has a good chance to continue against a struggling Royals offense.
Kansas City's lineup ranks in the bottom 10 in MLB in batting average, OBP, OPS, slugging percentage, and runs. This is not a high-powered offense by any means, so Taillon shouldn't have any trouble working through the lineup. It helps that the Royals are significantly worse offensively when they face a righty, seeing their batting average drop from .251 against lefties to .236 against right-handed pitching.
Why The Royals Could Win
Despite Taillon's recent stretch of brilliance, there's reason to believe that the Royals can score some hits off him. The righty has been most effective when pitching at home, but his results are disastrous away from Yankee Stadium. Taillon's ERA on the road is a whopping 5.27, with his opponent's batting average rising from .218 at Yankee Stadium to .274 anywhere else. The Royals happen to be a much better team when they're at home, earning a higher batting average, OBP, OPS, and slugging percentage at Kauffman Stadium. Kansas City should be able to take advantage of these stats and put some early runs on the board.
The Royals will send out pitcher Carlos Hernandez to make the start Monday night. Hernandez is in a similar boat to Taillon, with his last seven starts being much better than his season-long body of work. Over that span, Hernandez has posted a 3.33 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP. He's also lucky enough to be facing a Yankees lineup that is nowhere near full strength. New York will be missing at least four starters in this matchup, so this normally intimidating lineup isn't all that scary anymore.
Final Yankees-Royals Prediction & Pick
With the odds looking like they do, this is a great spot for an upset pick. The Yankees are nowhere near full strength, increasing the chances of a strong outing from Hernandez. Taillon has been great in his recent appearances, but the Royals should be able to tag him for a couple of runs throughout the game. With the New York lineup completely depleted, there's no reason to believe that they can outscore even three or four runs. Take the upset and the great odds that come with it.
FINAL PICK: Kansas City Royals ML (+158)
