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It is mid-week Conference USA action as MTSU takes on Western Kentucky. It is time to continue our College Football odds series with a MTSU-Western Kentucky prediction, pick, and how-to watch.
The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders have not had the best start to this year. They opened against Alabama and never got their offense going. It was a 56-7 loss then, and they then faced another SEC school in Missouri. That resulted in another loss, but it was close, 23-19. They got their first win of the season against FCB Murray State before facing Colorado State. They went into the game as four-point favorites but would end up losing. It was a second half for forget for MTSU. They allowed two touchdown passes to give Colorado State the lead, and then a fumble returned for a touchdown gave Colorado State a two-touchdown lead. They would fall 31-23.
Western Kentucky was one of the favorites to win Conference USA when the season opened. They started the season with two strong offensive performances. First, they beat USF 41-24. They followed that up by scoring 52 points against Houston Christian and winning 52-22. Then, they faced Ohio State. Ohio State was clicking on all cylinders during the game. They would lose that game 63-10 before facing Troy. Troy played great defense all game long, as their running back Kimani Vidal scored twice to take the win for Troy and knock Western Kentucky to 2-2 on the year.
Here are the college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: MTSU-Western Kentucky Odds
MTSU: +5.5 (-105)
Western Kentucky: -5.5 (-115)
Over: 59.5 (-110)
Under: 59.5 (-110)
How to Watch MTSU vs. Western Kentucky
TV: CBSSN
Stream: CBS Sports App
Time: 7:30 PM ET/ 4:30 PM PT
*Watch college football LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why MTSU Will Cover The Spread
MTSU needs a good game from their quarterback to cover or take the win in this one. Nicholas Vittiato has been solid this year. He is 101-143 on the year with 928 yards passing and seven touchdowns. He has thrown two interceptions on the year, with one against Alabama, and has thrown just five turnover-worthy passes. Meanwhile, he has four big-time throws according to PFF. He has been pressured and sacked a lot this year. So far, Vittiato has dropped 166 times and been pressured 38 times. The issue is, he has been sacked 11 times, nearly a 30 percent rate. He has also had to deal with drops this year. He has dealt with 10 drops already this year.
The offensive line has been an issue this year for MTSU. The leading rusher on the team is Vattiato, who between scrambles and 19 designed runs has 199 yards and two scores on the ground. He has fumbled twice though this year. the main back has been Jaiden Credle, who has 29 rushes for 186 yards and a score. While his average point of first contact is well past three yards beyond the line of scrimmage, that is mainly because he has three carries this year over 15 yards where he was not contacted in the first 15 yards of the run. Overall, the offensive line averages just 2.2 yards before getting first contact on their running back.
At receiver, someone needs to step up. Elijah Metcalf has been the top target this year. He has hauled in 22 of 26 targets but for just 192 yards and a score. He has stopped the ball twice and only come away with one contested catch, while also allowing interceptions. Further, he is the only player on the roster with over 100 yards after the catch this year.
On defense, getting a pass rush on Western Kentucky is going to be huge. This year the team has 50 quarterbacks pressured, with nine sacks. Drew Francis and Sam Brumfield lead the way, both of them with four or more pressures and two sacks this year. The Coverage also needs to be big in this game, but it has not stepped up this year. The team has just one interception all year, and that is by Deonte Stanley. He has allowed 10 of 15 targets to be hauled in though, for 159 yards. He also has two of the four pass breakups on the team. Meanwhile, De'Arre McDonald has the other two pass breakups, but he has dropped an interception, allowed 12 of 19 targets to be completed, and allowed a touchdown.
Why Western Kentucky Will Cover The Spread
For Western Kentucky to cover it will start with Austin Reed. Reed has not been amazing this year and had a mediocre game last week. On the year he is 101-160 for 1,068 yards and nine touchdowns. Last time out, he threw two more touchdowns but did throw another turnover-worthy pass in the game. His protection was not great. Reed was pressured 11 times on 41 dropbacks, taking a sack and having to throw checkdowns the other 10 times.
The running game also has to be better for them to cover. Western Kentucky had just 13 net rushing yards last game on 13 rushing attempts. In the year, the leading rusher is Davion Ervin-Pointdexter. He has 20 rushes for just 92 yards this year. The issue for him has been ball security, as he has fumbled twice. This year, Western Kentucky has just 356 yards rushing in four games. They have scored four times on the ground, but also fumbled four times and have an average point of first contact of just a yard and a half downfield.
MTSU will attempt to run the ball in this game. Western Kentucky has been hit-and-miss in the run game. They do have 69 stops for offensive failure on 135 rushing attempts this year. That gives them an over 50 percent success rate on running plays. They have also missed 35 tackles in the run game, allowing big runs. Still, Western Kentucky is getting a solid pass rush. They have 72 quarterback pressures with 13 sacks this year. Kendrick Simkins is leading them there. The safety is often used in blitz packages and he has 13 quarterback pressures and four sacks on the year.
Final MTSU-Western Kentucky Prediction & Pick
Both teams in this game had hopes of winning Conference USA. The winner of this game will have an inside track to make the conference title game. With two teams not eligible Jacksonville State and Sam Houston both in their first year in the conference, there is less competition. Liberty right now is at the top of the class in the conference and both teams still need to face Liberty. Austin Reed will be the difference in this game. If he can play to his top potential, Western Kentucky can pull away. They have the better defense in this game as well. Western Kentucky will make a few big plays, and cover in this one.
Final MTSU-Western Kentucky Prediction & Pick: Western Kentucky -5.5 (-115)
