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The Main Card of UFC Baku is finally here as we bring you a betting prediction and pick for this next bout in the Featherweight (145) Division. Tajikistan's own Muhammad Naimov will take on Austria's Bogdan Grad as both fighters search for back-to-back wins. Check the UFC odds series for our Naimov-Grad prediction and pick.
Muhammad Naimov (12-3) makes this walk with a 4-1 UFC record since 2023. After suffering his first promotional loss to Felipe Lima, he bounced back nicely with a win over Kaan Ofli during his most recent bout. He comes in as the stern betting favorite looking to add a potential top-15 ranking to his name. Naimov stands 5-foot-9 with a 70-inch reach.
Bogdan Grad (15-2) makes his second walk to the UFC octagon following a win over Lucas Alexander during his debut fight. He posted a 1-1 record during his auditions on Dana White's Contender Series, but his current four-fight winning streak has him ready to burst onto the division's scene. Grad stands 5-foot-8 with a 70-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Baku Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Baku Odds: Muhammad Naimov-Bogdan Grad Odds
Muhammad Naimov: -290
Bogdan Grad: +235
Over 1.5 rounds: -250
Under 1.5 rounds: +190
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Why Muhammad Naimov Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Kaan Ofli – U DEC
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 5 KO/TKO, 3 SUB
Muhammad Naimov put together a complete performance in his latest win over Kaan Ofli and he's got a tremendous base of experience to work with as he tries to crack the top-15 rankings. He's an extremely even-keeled fighter who doesn't take too many chances on the feet or on the ground. He strikes when he sees openings and although he tries to force the wrestling at times, he usually comes away from it in an advantageous position.
During this fight, Grad is the much more active grappler and will look to chase takedowns on Naimov during the early rounds. Naimov, however, does a great job of scrambling and can reverse positions to give himself a solid look on the ground. During this fight, he should look to take the back of Grad and end up in top position where he can land strikes.
On the feet, Naimov is very quick and can read the movement of opponents very well. He does a good job of making adjustments during the fight and although his offense may not look pretty or exciting, it certainly gets the job done on the judges' scorecards. He'll be looking for a more definitive result in this fight, however, as he doesn't want to give his opponent a chance over the course of three rounds.
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Why Bogdan Grad Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Lucas Alexander – TKO (punches, R2)
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 9 KO/TKO, 3 SUB
After a loss and eventual win on Dana White's Contender Series, Bogdan Grad is finally seeing his peak as a mixed martial artist. His last fight was pure dominance as he broke his opponent down, took the back, and came away with a TKO win. Grad is extremely tough to finish on the feet thanks to his chin and he's an even tougher opponent to catch with a submission. If he remains on the offensive during this fight, we should become aware very quickly that there are few holes in his defensive game.
However, given how fresh he is onto the UFC scene, he's still prone to making mistakes that could compromise his position during this fight. Grad will need to be very diligent in not falling behind on the striking numbers as he's certainly a more willing grappler than he is kickboxer.
To be successful against Naimov, Grad will have to bait his opponent into closing the distance as he takes an opportune attempt at his legs. The low leg kicks could also become a weapon for him as we've seen Naimov fail to check attempts on his legs in the past.
Final Muhammad Naimov-Bogdan Grad Prediction & Pick
This will be an exciting fight from start to finish as both men tend to go all-out with their cardio from the opening minutes. Bogdan Grad certainly has a scary gas tank and it'll be interesting to see if he follows his usual game plan in getting this fight to the ground and seeking offense from there.
However, Muhammad Naimov is expecting this look and his grappling has become increasingly better over the last few fights. On the feet, he stands to stifle Grad's rhythm if he's able to land his straight jab and create damage early.
For our final prediction, we have to roll with Muhammad Naimov to get the win during a close fight where he takes control later on. His striking prowess will be too much to handle and his ability to stuff the takedowns will make all the difference.
Final Muhammad Naimov-Bogdan Grad Prediction & Pick: Muhammad Naimov (-290); OVER 1.5 Rounds (-250)
