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Missouri aims to keep its momentum going after a breakthrough 2023 campaign when it hosts FCS foe Murray State in Week 1. We continue our college football odds series with a Murray State-Missouri prediction, pick, and how to watch.
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Eli Drinkwitz led the Tigers to an 11-2 record a season ago, including a Cotton Bowl victory against Ohio State. It was Missouri's highest win total since 2014, and there is plenty of returning talent with the potential to lead the preseason No. 11 team in the country to its first College Football Playoff appearance.
Meanwhile, Murray State looks to bounce back from seven straight losses and a 2-9 record in 2023.
Here are the college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Murray State-Missouri Odds
Murray State: -47.5 (-105)
Missouri: +46.5 (-115)
Over: 57.5 (-115)
Under: 57.5 (-105)
How to Watch Murray State vs. Missouri Week 1
Time: 8:00 p.m. ET/5:00 p.m. PT
TV: SEC Network
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why Murray State Will Cover The Spread
Because 46.5 is a lot of points?
Other than that, the Racers may have an opportunity to test some of Missouri's new defensive pieces early on. The Tigers have to replace three of their top four defensive tackles, including first-round pick Darius Robinson (43 tackles, 8.5 sacks). They have to replace third-round pick Ty'Ron Hopper (55 tackles, 3 sacks) at linebacker. In the secondary, three more draft choices exit in second-round pick Ennis Rakestraw Jr. (35 tackles), fifth-round pick Kris Abrams-Draine (51 tackles, 4 INTs), and fifth-round pick Jaylon Carlies (64 tackles, 2 sacks, 2 INTs).
Defensive coordinator Blake Baker left for LSU, so Corey Batoon steps into the role looking to replicate Missouri's success without many of the players responsible for it. He has enough talent to do it, but it could be a unit that has to improve on some things in the first few games of the season.
To cover the spread, Murray State needs to score points. The reason why is simple…
Why Missouri Will Cover The Spread
Missouri's offense is going to be a juggernaut.
Brady Cook could be even better at quarterback after a breakout 2023 season. He completed 66.1 percent of his throws and posted 3,316 yards and 21 touchdowns through the air while rushing for 319 yards and eight touchdowns. Cook won't have All-American running back Cody Schrader (276 CARs, 1,627 yards, 14 TDs) in the backfield, but he will have a wide receiver group that should be one of the best in college football.
Wide receiver Luther Burden III, an Associated Press Preseason First Team All-American, is an absolute stud. To say that he had a breakout 2023 season would be an understatement, as Burden caught 86 balls for 1,212 yards (14.1 yards per reception) and nine touchdowns. Rejoining him in the wide receiver room is Theo Wease Jr., Mookie Cooper, and Marquis Johnson to give the Tigers their top four pass catchers back in the mix.
While Missouri does have to replace starting left tackle Javon Foster – drafted in the fourth round by the Jacksonville Jaguars – four starters are returning on the offensive line. That should help the new-look running game, and it should also help Cook have plenty of time to complete throws against a defense that could be reeling right off the bat.
What's not to like about all of that? If that's not enough convincing, there's more.
Again, Murray State won just two games last season. The roster is better this year, but traditionally, this team has not performed well against power conference opponents. The Racers lost 56-0 at Louisville in 2023, 63-10 at Texas Tech in 2022, 42-7 at Cincinnati in 2022, and so on. That trend isn't surprising, but it's notable when a point spread is more than seven touchdowns.
Missouri is a preseason top-15 team for a reason, and Drinkwitz will have them ready to prove it.
Final Murray State-Missouri Prediction & Pick
One team won just two games at the FCS level a season ago, and the other is coming off an 11-win season with the talent to reach the College Football Playoff.
There's no reason to overthink this pick. Missouri should be better in all facets of the game and dominate at the line of scrimmage, and that's usually the difference in a game like this one.
Cook and company will likely get off to a fast start, as few teams this season will be able to contain all the playmakers in this offense. Murray State's only shot at keeping it close is forcing turnovers, but that is going to be easier said than done.
The Tigers should stand on business with a huge win to kick off what could be another special season.
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