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UFC Baku: Jamahal Hill versus Khalil Rountree Jr. continues on the main card with a fight between Myktybek Orolbai and Tofiq Musayev in the lightweight division. Check out our UFC odds series for our Orolbai-Musayev prediction and pick.
Myktybek Orolbai (13-2-1) enters UFC Baku after a razor-thin split decision loss to Mateusz Rebecki in a “Fight of the Night” battle, following a dominant unanimous decision win over Elves Brener. Now, Orolbai aims to rebound and halt Tofiq Musayev’s momentum this Saturday night.
Tofiq Musayev (22-5) enters UFC Baku riding a wave of momentum after scoring back-to-back knockout wins over Koji Takeda and Akira Okada in RIZIN. Now, Musayev looks to make a statement in his UFC debut by halting Myktybek Orolbai’s rise this Saturday night
Here are the UFC Baku Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Baku Odds: Myktybek Orolbai-Tofiq Musayev Odds
Myktybek Orolbai: -155
Tofiq Musayev: +130
Over 1.5 rounds: -260
Under 1.5 rounds: +195
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Why Myktybek Orolbai Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Mateusz Rebecki – DEC
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 11 (6 KO/TKO/5 SUB)
Myktybek Orolbai’s relentless wrestling and youth give him a clear path to victory over Tofiq Musayev this weekend. Orolbai averages over seven takedowns per 15 minutes in the UFC, consistently grounding his opponents and controlling the pace of the fight. His ability to blend powerful takedowns with submission threats has led to five submission wins and seven first-round finishes, making him a constant danger on the mat.
Musayev, while a decorated striker with 18 knockout wins and a Rizin Grand Prix title, has shown vulnerabilities against high-level grapplers in his career, suffering three submission losses. Orolbai’s pressure and top control can neutralize Musayev’s striking, forcing him to defend takedowns rather than unleash his powerful kicks and punches. Additionally, Orolbai’s youth and cardio advantage, he is just 27 compared to Musayev’s 35, suggest he can push a higher pace, especially in the later rounds.
If Orolbai can avoid Musayev’s early knockout power and implement his wrestling-heavy game plan, he is likely to wear down the Azerbaijani veteran and rack up control time. Expect Orolbai to use his grappling, athleticism, and fight IQ to secure a decision or late submission victory, halting Musayev’s momentum in his UFC debut.
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Why Tofiq Musayev Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Koji Takeda – TKO R3
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 20 (18 KO/TKO/2 SUB)
Tofiq Musayev’s explosive striking and finishing instincts give him a clear path to victory over Myktybek Orolbai this weekend. Musayev boasts 18 knockout wins and 14 first-round finishes, making him one of the most dangerous lightweights on the feet. His aggressive style, highlighted by powerful leg kicks and fast combinations, allows him to pressure opponents and dictate the pace early.
Orolbai has shown vulnerabilities in striking defense, absorbing nearly as many significant strikes as he lands, which could be exploited by Musayev’s high-volume offense. While Orolbai’s wrestling is formidable, Musayev’s experience against top grapplers in RIZIN and Bellator, including wins over Patricky Pitbull and Johnny Case, demonstrates his ability to handle pressure and keep fights standing. Musayev’s takedown defense and scrambling ability have improved, making it difficult for opponents to hold him down for extended periods.
If Musayev can keep the fight upright and avoid Orolbai’s early takedown attempts, his superior striking and finishing ability should allow him to rack up damage and potentially secure an early stoppage. Expect Musayev to use his experience, athleticism, and fight IQ to outgun Orolbai, making a statement in his UFC debut and halting Orolbai’s momentum in front of a home crowd.
Final Myktybek Orolbai-Tofiq Musayev Prediction & Pick
This lightweight showdown at UFC Baku features Tofiq Musayev making his highly anticipated UFC debut against the surging Myktybek Orolbai. Musayev, a former Rizin Grand Prix champion, enters with a reputation for explosive striking, boasting 18 knockout wins and 14 first-round finishes, making him one of the most dangerous lightweights on the feet. His recent back-to-back knockout victories in Rizin have showcased his elite kickboxing, fast combinations, and ability to dictate the pace early.
Orolbai, while a relentless wrestler with a strong UFC start, has shown vulnerabilities in striking defense, absorbing nearly as many significant strikes as he lands. Musayev’s experience against top-level competition—including wins over Patricky Pitbull and Johnny Case—demonstrates his ability to handle pressure and keep the fight standing, even when facing high-level grapplers. If Musayev can defend Orolbai’s early takedown attempts, his superior striking and finishing instincts should allow him to rack up damage and potentially secure an early stoppage.
Expect Musayev to use his athleticism, experience, and fight IQ to outgun Orolbai, especially with the energy of the home crowd behind him in Azerbaijan. Tofiq Musayev will make a statement in his UFC debut, halting Orolbai’s momentum with a decisive knockout or dominant decision victory.
Final Myktybek Orolbai-Tofiq Musayev Prediction & Pick: Tofiq Musayev (+130), Over 1.5 rounds (-260)
