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Three-time undisputed super bantamweight champion Naoya Inoue returns to the ring on Friday against short-notice replacement Ye Joon Kim. It's time to continue our boxing odds series with an Inoue-Kim prediction and pick.
Inoue, 31, was preparing to make this defense against undefeated Australian challenger Sam Goodman, who withdrew from the fight two weeks out with an injury. The undefeated Japanese champion has been a consensus top-five pound-for-pound fighter in the world for several years and is coming off a seventh-round knockout of T.J. Doheny in September 2024.
Kim, 32, is easily getting the biggest fight of his life. The Korean accepted the fight on 13-day notice after eight months of inactivity. Kim is coming off a fifth-round knockout of Rakesh Lohchab to win the WBC Oriental Super Bantamweight title. He has won six of his last seven fights by knockout.
Here are the Naoya Inoue-Ye Joon Kim odds, courtesy of FanDuel
Boxing Odds: Naoya Inoue-Ye Joon Kim Odds
Naoya Inoue: -5000
Ye Joon Kim: +1600
Over 3.5 Rounds: -108
Under 3.5 Rounds: -118
How to Watch Naoya Inoue vs. Ye Joon Kim
Time: 4:15 a.m. ET / 1:15 a.m. PT
Main event ring walks: 6 a.m. ET / 3 am.m PT
TV/Stream: ESPN+
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Why Naoya Inoue Will Win
Kim is making such a high jump in competition from where he previously was in his career that it cannot truly be understated. While he is coming off a WBC Oriental title victory, he is less than two years removed from losing a lackluster decision to 35-year-old Rob Diezel, who entered the fight with a 14-9 record.
At this point in his career, Inoue's fight-changing power is a tale as old as time. His left hook has been his money-maker, leading to nine consecutive knockouts ahead of his fourth undisputed title defense. It almost seems as if it is just a matter of time every time he steps into the ring.
The big knock on Inoue lately has been his slowly decreasing defensive effort. It is hard to blame him with the matchups he has been given, but he has been clipped more than once in the past two years, including by Luis Nery, who put him down just two fights ago. Those problems still exist, but Kim does not seem like the fighter to expose them.
Despite picking up his last six wins by knockout, Kim has won just 13 of his 21 career victories by stoppage. Given the opponents he has faced and the clear set-ups he has received at times, that is an uninspiring finish rate. Kim has had a lot of success recently attacking the body, but that is not the approach to take with Inoue.
Why Ye Joon Kim Will Win
Kim's entire promotion for this fight is based on his belief that Inoue is not the invincible “Monster” that he is depicted as. Most of that is promotional talk, but it is also a true statement.
Inoue's power has almost been a double-edged sword of late, as the champion's belief in his knockout ability has led to relaxed defensive mechanics. Inoue loves his left hook, which can render anybody on Earth unconscious if it lands. However, if it doesn't, he is almost always susceptible to eating a counter left hook.
Unlike Doheny, Kim is going to exchange with Inoue in the pocket. That can be fatal against Inoue, but it is also the best way to beat him. Inoue can almost be too confident to a fault at times and drop his hands in close quarters, leading to poor exits. Kim has to be willing to walk through the fire, but he does, the chinks in Inoue's armor have become increasingly evident.
Final Naoya Inoue-Ye Joon Kim Prediction & Pick
After Inoue was knocked down by Nery, Top Rank tried to give him a favorable matchup with Doheny to pick up another highlight-reel knockout. Unfortunately for them, Doheny made it his goal to stay as far away from Inoue as possible. This time, they found a fighter willing to engage with Inoue enough to lead to a big finish.
There are not a lot of big fights to set up at 122 pounds, but Goodman was the best they were able to get for Inoue. Although that fight fell apart, it is still on the table. In front of his home crowd, Top Rank wants Inoue to put on a show and remind the world that he is in the same pound-for-pound conversation as Oleksandr Usyk and Terence Crawford.
A three and a half round spread is noticeably low for a title fight, especially since Inoue has gone over that mark in his last four fights. But there is one clear purpose of this fight and it will not take longer than 10 minutes. Kim has never been knocked out, but he has never fought anyone with even half the speed or power that Inoue has.
Final Naoya Inoue-Ye Joon Kim Prediction & Pick: Under 3.5 rounds (-118)
