Navajo Stirling vs. Tuco Tokkos prediction, odds, pick for UFC Tampa

UFC Tampa is finally here and we're ready to bring you all the betting predictions and picks as the action gets underway. The Main Card will open with a battle of newcomers in the Light Heavyweight (205) Division as New Zealand's Navajo Stirling debuts against the United Kingdom's Tuco Tokkos. Check out our UFC odds series for our Stirling-Tokkos prediction and pick.

Navajo Stirling (5-0) will be making his UFC debut following a knockout win during his audition fight at Dana White's Contender Series. It marked the fourth knockout win of his young career and he'll come into his debut on the biggest stage as one of the biggest betting favorites on the card. Stirling stands 6'4″ with a 79-inch reach.

Tuco Tokkos (10-4) is just 0-1 in the UFC following a debut loss at the hands of Oumar Sy in May 2024. The loss broke a three-fight unbeaten streak and he's gone 6-2 over his last eight bouts. He'll hope for a massive upset as he takes on another highly-touted prospect making his debut. Tokkos stands 6'4″ with a 76-inch reach.

Here are the UFC Tampa Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC Tampa Odds: Navajo Stirling-Tuco Tokkos Odds

Navajo Stirling: -700

Tuco Tokkos: +500

Over 1.5 rounds: -140

Under 1.5 rounds: +110

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Why Navajo Stirling Will Win

Navajo Stirling made a massive impression on Dana White's Contender Series with a one-punch knockout to sit his opponent down and earn a UFC contract. Ranked as the No. 1 Light Heavyweight prospect in Australia and New Zealand, Stirling has been waiting quite some time to make this appearance at the very peak of his game. He trains at world famous City Kickboxing under coach Eugene Bareman and has serious experience training with the likes of Israel Adesanya, Dan Hooker, Carlos Ulberg, and many more.

Navajo Stirling has a tremendous physical frame for the weight class and whatever he lacks in size, he more than makes up for with his striking power. He's very athletic and has a long 79-inch reach, giving him the ability to keep opponents at a safe distance while he throws his jab out in front. Watch for him to make use of his leg kicks as well – he can throw them extremely hard and it opens up other techniques for his boxing.

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Why Tuco Tokkos Will Win

Tuco Tokkos comes into this fight after having to face Oumar Sy is his debut bout. He was billed as the heavy betting underdog and he'll be in a similar spot again as he faces another highly-touted opponent. He moved his training camp over to KillCliff in Florida ahead of this fight in hopes of putting together training partners to mimic the frame of his opponent. Tokkos is very resilient and he'll be a dangerous opponent to face as he tries to rebound from a loss.

Tokkos is also very skilled in coming together with a specific game plan for his opponent and we've seen him perfectly hit the mark as an underdog. He'll need to be perfect in landing his shots during this bout as he may not get too many opportunities to land them cleanly. His chin has been very solid in the past so we wouldn't be surprised if he sold out for the knockout, but look for Tokkos to be very cautious when approaching his opponent.

Final Navajo Stirling-Tuco Tokkos Prediction & Pick

This fight is guaranteed to be a banger in opening the Main Card action as both fighters have a history of knocking their opponents out. Tuco Tokkos has the advantage of having already seen his first UFC fight, while Navajo Stirling will have to shake off the jitters while he makes his debut.

The clear physical and skill advantage here goes to Navajo Stirling and his training at City Kickboxing in Auckland. He's had experience against some of the greats and he's more than prepared from a skill standpoint in making this debut.

Tuco Tokkos certainly has a chance to earn the upset if he's able to close the distance and land heavy shots inside. He's very resilient and will keep coming until he's knocked out, so he'll remain a dangerous threat as long as he's on his feet.

Still, we have to ride with the betting favorite to finish this fight inside the distance. Stirling's power is far too great and with his accuracy growing each day, he should be able to finish this fight early with a knockout.

Final Navajo Stirling-Tuco Tokkos Prediction & Pick: Navajo Stirling (-700); UNDER 1.5 Rounds (+140)