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The Memphis Grizzlies (20-11) visit the Golden State Warriors (15-18) in a Christmas Day matchup. Action tips off at 8 p.m. ET. Below we continue our NBA odds series with a Grizzlies-Warriors prediction and pick.
Memphis comes into Sunday's game fresh off a 25-point win over Phoenix and sits in second place in the Western Conference. The Grizzlies are 15-14-2 against the spread while 53% of their games have gone under. Golden State, meanwhile, is reeling after two consecutive 30-point losses, dropping to 11th place in the West. The Warriors are 14-19 against the spread while 63% of their games have gone over. This will be the first of four games between the two teams. Last season, Memphis took three of four games in the regular season, only to lose in the second round.
Here are the Grizzlies-Warriors NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NBA Odds: Grizzlies-Warriors Odds
Memphis Grizzlies: -6.5 (-110)
Golden State Warriors: +6.5 (-110)
Over: 230 (-110)
Under: 230 (-110)
Why The Grizzlies Could Cover The Spread
Memphis has looked like one of the best teams in the league despite being plagued by injuries for a majority of the season. The Grizzlies rank seventh in scoring and 11th in offensive rating. They posses a strong defense that ranks eighth in points allowed and fifth in defensive rating. Their biggest strength lies on the glass where they rank first in rebound differential and second in rebound rate. Notably, guard Desmond Bane returned to the starting lineup in their last matchup, which marked the first time Memphis' entire starting lineup had played together this season.
With the return of Bane, Memphis has arguably the most well-rounded starting lineup in the NBA. Bane looked solid in his return on Friday — scoring 17 points and nailing two triples. While he shot just 4-of-13 from the field, some rust was to be expected. Bane's return instantly vaults Memphis to the top of the league. Bane is averaging 24.1 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 4.5 assists while shooting 45.6% from the field and 43.6% from beyond the arc. His return gives Memphis a huge boost and is something better needs to keep in mind before making a Grizzlies-Warriors prediction.
Bane's return gives the entire team a boost, but it could prove especially important to point guard Ja Morant. Morant had weathered the storm extremely well during Bane's absence despite taking on a majority of the defenses' attention. With Bane back, Morant should have a lot more room to operate. For the season, Morant averages 26.5 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 7.9 assists while shooting 44.9% from the field and 34.1% from 3-point range. The superstar point guard made headlines with his comments about Memphis' Western Conference competition, but backed it up on Friday with their blowout win of Phoenix. Morant will get another opportunity on Christmas Day against the defending champs. Golden State notably knocked Memphis out of the playoffs last year, giving the Grizzlies an added source of motivation, even with Stephen Curry out.
Why The Warriors Could Cover The Spread
Golden State has not had the championship defense many expected thus far and is now missing Steph Curry due to an injury. A one-trick pony so far this season, the Warriors excel on offense where they rank fifth in scoring and 14th in offensive rating. They're atrocious defensively, ranking 27th in points allowed and 25th in defensive rating. Golden State doesn't do itself any favors on the glass, ranking 20th in rebound differential and 24th in rebound rate. Golden State will continue to be without Steph Curry and Andrew Wiggins due to injuries, with Draymond Green questionable at the moment.
Having gone just 1-3 since Steph's injury, the Warriors' only real chance of covering will come thanks to a hot shooting night from one (if not both) of their guards. Jordan Poole has stepped into the primary scoring role in Curry's absence, averaging 27.8 points across their last four games. Poole has shot around just 31% from beyond the arc during that span, however, leaving the door open for even greater production. He was the catalyst in their lone Curry-less win over Toronto, scoring 43 points and draining five triples.
While Poole will need to be on his A-game, fellow guard Klay Thompson will need to return to form quickly and provide the Warriors with a legitimate second scoring option. Thompson has averaged just 13.3 points since Curry went out and has not shot all that well. Like Poole, he has the potential to heat up at any moment and could easily propel the Warriors to a cover as huge home underdogs.
Final Grizzlies-Warriors Prediction & Pick
This may be my favorite play of the season. Memphis finally has everyone back, while Golden State has gotten blown out in two straight games. Add in that this is a revenge game for Memphis after Golden State knocked them out of the playoffs last year, and this is an easy Grizzlies pick for me.
Final Grizzlies-Warriors Prediction & Pick: Memphis Grizzlies -6.5 (-110)
