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The Milwaukee Bucks will take on the Oklahoma City Thunder on Tuesday night. It's time to continue our NBA odds series and make a Bucks-Thunder prediction and pick.
Both of these teams have performed about as everyone expected them to. After a title run, the Bucks have maintained their status as an elite team in the NBA, earning a 40-25 record and the third seed in the Eastern Conference. Milwaukee's strong record is punctuated by a four-game winning streak against some of the best teams in the league, including the Phoenix Suns and the Chicago Bulls. Meanwhile, the Thunder have been one of the worst teams in the NBA, just like everyone expected. Oklahoma City is 20-44 as they go through the definition of a rebuilding year. Despite the vastly different records at play, this game should remain interesting, so let's get into the pick.
Here are the Bucks-Thunder NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NBA Odds: Bucks-Thunder Odds
Milwaukee Bucks: -14 (-108)
Oklahoma City Thunder: +14 (-112)
Over: 230.5 (-110)
Under: 230.5 (-110)
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Why The Bucks Could Cover The Spread
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Milwaukee is the statistically superior team in nearly every single category here, but their defense is what could carry them to a cover. The Bucks have been one of the more solid teams in the league on defense, only giving up 45% shooting percentage from the field while holding their opponents to 110 points per game. Milwaukee has also been fantastic at stopping opponents from scoring in the paint and in transition, two areas the Thunder rely on to put up points. Trust the Bucks' defense here.
It's late in the season, which means injuries are a factor for everyone in the league. The Thunder are obviously no exception. Oklahoma City will be without starters Josh Giddey and Lugeuntz Dort, while starting center Isaiah Roby is questionable. Kenrich Williams, Dort's backup, has also been ruled out. The Thunder will be playing this game without some of their best players, and they aren't particularly deep to begin with.
Why The Thunder Could Cover The Spread
Despite their terrible record, the Thunder actually haven't been all that bad on defense. They give up just over 109 points per game, but they hold their opponents to 45% shooting from the field and one of the lowest shooting efficiency numbers in the league. Oklahoma City also has the second-best fast break defense in the NBA, which should help slow down a Bucks offense that ranks ninth in the league in fast-break points per game. Overall, this Thunder defense is likely to put forth a strong performance despite all of the injuries at play.
While they do have one of the worst records in the league, Oklahoma City actually has one of the best records in the NBA against the spread. The Thunder are currently 38-22-4 ATS, a mark that has them as the second-best team in the league in that category. They're also a solid 16-12-4 against the spread when they play at home. Milwaukee has been decent against the spread, but they're only 16-14 ATS as the road team. Historically, the Thunder have covered in games like this one.
Final Bucks-Thunder Prediction & Pick
This spread is just too small, largely because of the variety of injuries the Thunder are dealing with. If Oklahoma City was healthy, they would likely cover here, but they'll be relying on too many backups in this matchup. Take Milwaukee with confidence.
Final Bucks-Thunder Pick: Milwaukee Bucks: -14 (-108)
