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The Milwaukee Bucks travel to Arizona on Wednesday to face the Phoenix Suns for the first time this season. It’s time to continue our NBA odds series and make a Bucks-Suns prediction and pick.
The Bucks hold an overall record of 16-8, but they are only 13-11 against the spread. Milwaukee is coming off a dominant victory over the Denver Nuggets.
The Suns' overall and against the spread records are identical at 14-9. In Phoenix's last matchup, they defeated the Cleveland Cavaliers on their home floor.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the opening Bucks-Suns odds.
NBA Odds: Bucks-Suns Odds
Milwaukee Bucks -4.5 (-110)
Phoenix Suns +4.5 (-110)
Over 227 PTS (-110)
Under 227 PTS (-110)
Why The Bucks Could Cover The Spread
Milwaukee has been on an absolute tear of late.
In their last five matchups, the Bucks have not only covered, they've covered with ease. In four of those games, Milwaukee covered the spread by double-digit margins. The Bucks were double-digit favorites in three of the five matchups, and they won each by 18 or more points.
Milwaukee is clicking on both ends of the floor right now. On offense, Giannis Antetokounmpo and company have scored the most points in the league, made the most field goals, and they hold the NBA's best offensive rating.
The Bucks offense has looked unstoppable as of late, and the scary part is that it's not all due to the reigning MVP.
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Giannis has played very well over the five game stretch, averaging 25.2 points on 57% shooting in limited minutes because of the margin of victory. But the thing that stands out is the play of the Bucks' role players. Not including Giannis, Milwaukee has had four players score double digits in four of their last five wins.
And it's not just the Bucks offense that is working. Defensively, the team has clamped down their opponents. Since their embarrassing two-game stretch against the Pelicans and Hornets, the Bucks haven't allowed an opposing team to reach their scoring average.
Against a Phoenix offense that has been middle-tier this season, we could see another shutdown performance by Milwaukee.
Why The Suns Could Cover The Spread
The Bucks have been smoking hot, but the Suns aren't doing so bad themselves. After getting beat down on national television by the Pelicans, Phoenix did a 180.
The Suns blew out Detroit and gutted out two tough wins against the Celtics and Cavaliers.
The victory over the Cavaliers came without Chris Paul in the lineup as the point guard dealt with a hamstring injury. Devin Booker took over to drop a season-high 36 points.
With Paul questionable on Wednesday, the Suns need a similar performance from Booker. He and the Suns do catch a break on the offensive end, as Jrue Holiday will be out after testing positive for COVID-19.
Without Holiday to match up with Booker, the young star should have an easier time getting buckets. Milwaukee is likely to throw Khris Middleton his way, which is still a tough matchup, but Middleton is not a two-time NBA All-Defensive Team member like Holiday.
The Suns will lean on their defense to keep this matchup close. The Bucks have excellent three-point shooters, but Phoenix has defended the perimeter well all season. The Suns have allowed the second-least three-pointers in the league and hold opponents to the fourth-lowest percentage from the three-point line.
Phoenix's best chance is to continue their excellent perimeter defense and rely on Booker to engineer enough offense to break a tough Bucks defensive line. Having Paul play will be a huge help, but it looks unlikely at the moment.
Final Bucks-Suns Prediction & Pick
In a battle of two teams that have played well of late, I'm going with the team that has been absolutely crushing opponents. The Suns are a solid team, but they're not on the same tier as Milwaukee. Even with Jrue Holiday out, 4.5 points seems low to me for a team that has won their last five games by an average margin of 20.8 points.
Phoenix will put up more of a fight than anyone Milwaukee has faced recently, but the Bucks are too hot right now to bet against them. Even if Paul plays, I'll take the Bucks by double digits in the desert.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION FOR BUCKS-SUNS: MIL 122, PHX 109 (MIL -4.5)
