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It's a potential NBA Finals preview as the Milwaukee Bucks head into San Francisco to take on the Golden State Warriors on a special NBA Saturday night primetime showcase. It's time to continue our NBA odds series with a Bucks-Warriors prediction and pick.
The Bucks are coming off a 124-115 victory over the Chicago Bulls on Wednesday night at the Fiserv Forum. Giannis Antetokounmpo delivered a monster performance, putting up 43 points on a 15 for 22 shooting performance. Antetokounmpo has been on fire over his last two games, as he has averaged 41 points over that span. The Bucks currently sit second in the Eastern Conference, just two and a half games behind the Miami Heat. The Warriors are coming off a 113-102 road win over the Denver Nuggets on Wednesday night. Stephen Curry led the charge with 34 points, 24 of which came in a strong second half that saw the Warriors rally from a nine-point halftime deficit. This showdown with the Bucks will be a legitimate challenge for them.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Bucks-Warriors NBA odds:
NBA Odds: Bucks-Warriors Odds
Bucks: -1.5 (-110)
Warriors: +1.5 (-110)
Over: 237 (-110)
Under: 237 (-110)
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Why The Bucks Could Cover The Spread
The Bucks are the favorites in this battle, and there is an enormous reason for this. It all starts with the health of the Warriors. They will be without Draymond Green, who is still out with a calf injury. He has always been the final piece of the big three that the Warriors put out on the floor. The Warriors will also be without key role players like Andre Iguodala and Gary Payton II. This hurts their depth and exposes them when their stars are not on the floor.
The Bucks are also a powerhouse team that has a lot more to offer than Antetokounmpo. In their recent win over the Bulls, Khris Middleton and Bobby Portis both contributed 23 points on a 9 for 17 shooting performance. Portis added 15 rebounds to the tally. Jrue Holiday has become such a clutch player for the Bucks over the last two seasons. Over that span, he is averaging 15 points and five assists per game, and also generating 1.5 steals, while shooting 50 percent from the field. This is the second year in a row that he has put up those numbers, and that makes him the second person in recent NBA history to accomplish that feat, as LeBron James was the only player to put up those consistent numbers.
The Bucks have dominated the Warriors in recent memory. In their most recent battle, a 118-99 home win on January 13th, they paced the floor and forced Golden State into making mental errors, and losing possession of the rock. Antetokounmpo scored 30 while shooting 11 for 17 from the field. Middleton and Portis were the key savants for that game, as both were spectacular from beyond the arc. Middleton nailed five three-pointers and Portis added four to amplify the pressure. It also helped that the Bucks held Curry to just 12 points on a bad 4 for 11 shooting night, including 2 for 6 from the three-point line. If the Bucks can contain Curry again, they will easily cover.
Why The Warriors Could Cover The Spread
Despite their recent injuries and illness, Golden State has won two games in a row, including the win in Denver. Curry continues to lead them, averaging 25.8 points per game. Kevon Looney has been a saving grace on the boards, pulling down an average of 7.6 rebounds per game. The Warriors maintain great shooting, ranking fifth in the NBA in shooting percentage. Their three-point marks continue to shine, as they are seventh in three-point shooting percentage. Klay Thompson has executed well on this, shooting 35.6 percent from the triples.
But it all starts with how they play Antetokounmpo. The Warriors have gone 2-5 in their last seven games in which Antetokounmpo has started for the Bucks. They dominated the series earlier in Antetokounmpo's career, but the tables have turned. To cover, Golden State must contain Antetokounmpo and force him to redirect the ball to Middleton and Portis. The Bucks are the favorites because of the injuries the Warriors have, but the game will be in San Francisco, so the home crowd and the extra energy from the Saturday night showcase could help.
Final Bucks-Warriors Prediction & Pick
Had the Warriors been the favorite, the smart pick would have been to take the Bucks to cover. When these teams met last year in California, the Warriors edged the Bucks out by a point behind Curry's 41 points but they also were playing the Bucks without Antetokounmpo, who was resting. The “Greek Freak” will play in this game, and along with his bandmates should provide an exceptional challenge to Curry, Thompson, and the short-handed Warriors. This game could come down to the wire but I see the Bucks edging them out, and taking the Warriors down in their own building.
Final Bucks-Warriors Pick: Bucks -1.5 (-110)
