Subscribe
Follow Us
The Chicago Bulls (11-18) visit the Miami Heat (16-15) on Tuesday night. Action tips off at 7:40 pm ET. Below we continue our NBA odds series with a Bulls-Heat prediction and pick.
Chicago has lost four straight games to drop them to 11th in the Eastern Conference. The Bulls are 12-16-1 against the spread while 55% of their games have gone under. Miami has won four consecutive games to bump them into seventh place in the East. The Heat are 10-19-2 against the spread while 52% of their games have gone over. This will be the second of three meetings between the two teams. Chicago took the first matchup in Miami, 116-108.
Here are the Bulls-Heat NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NBA Odds: Bulls-Heat Odds
Chicago Bulls: +4 (-110)
Miami Heat: -4 (-110)
Over: 222.5 (-110)
Under: 222.5 (-110)
Why The Bulls Could Cover The Spread
Chicago has had a rough go as of late but their underlying metrics still support them being a solid team. The Bulls are average in nearly every aspect of the game including offensively where they rank 15th in scoring and 22nd in offensive rating. They're slightly below average defensively, ranking 19th in points allowed and 17th in defensive rating. Chicago ranks 19th in rebound differential and 21st in rebound rate.
If Chicago wants to cover tonight they are going to need big games from their star wings DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine. DeRozan was spectacular in their earlier win over Miami. He scored 37 points (14-22), dished out nine assists, and pulled down six rebounds. That was just the start of what has been another strong season for the veteran. DeRozan has quietly averaged 25.9 PPG, 4.9 RPG, and 4.7 APG. He's shooting over 50% for just the third time in his career – demonstrating his ability to keep getting better as he ages. The 33-year-old continues to play well despite their recent losing skid. He averaged 27.3 PPG over their last four games. His strong play of late and earlier success against Miami is something to keep in mind before making a Bulls-Heat prediction.
For as good as DeRozan has been, the team has not been winning games. A major reason for that is a lack of production from their point guard spot. Guard Ayo Dosunmu is a critical x-factor tonight given his ability to create off the dribble. The Heat are a strong defensive team but the one area they can be exposed is on the perimeter. Ayo averages just 9.8 PPG but he's shooting over 50% from the point guard position. He's actually seen his minutes go down in his second season as he's down to just 26.8 minutes per game.
The Bulls are a much better team when he's on the court and his playing time could swing a narrow spread tonight. Chicago is 7-2 this season when Dosunmu plays more than 30 minutes, compared to 4-14 when he plays less than 30. Savvy betters should pay close attention to his first-half playing time and take advantage of this trend.
Why The Heat Could Cover The Spread
Miami has really turned their season around in recent games as they've won four straight games. The Heat still have a brutal offense that ranks 29th in scoring and 26th in offensive rating. Their defense is absolutely elite, however, as they rank fifth in points allowed and seventh in defensive rating. Miami doesn't do themselves any favors on the glass where they rank 25th in both rebound differential and rebound rate. Jimmy Butler is expected to play, while Kyle Lowry is listed as questionable.
Despite their poor offensive numbers, the Heat have a trio of strong scorers who average 20+ points per game. Forward Jimmy Butler leads the way with 21.9 PPG in addition to his 6.8 RPG and 5.9 APG. Butler is a menace on defense as well, averaging 1.9 steals per game. He's played well in recent games as he's averaging 24.4 PPG on 63% shooting.
Butler won't have to do it all by himself, however. Guard Tyler Herro played very well this season, especially since his insertion into the starting lineup. The former sixth man averages 21.2 PPG, 6.3 RPG, and 4.2 APG. Herro has been very efficient as well as he's shooting 46% from the field and 41% from three. He had a strong showing in their earlier meeting with Chicago when he scored 23 points on 53% shooting.
The biggest reason Miami can cover tonight is their advantage down low. Center Bam Adebayo is one of the best all-around big men in the league and should have a lot of success against a weak Bulls interior.
Final Bulls-Heat Prediction & Pick
With these teams headed in opposite directions, I like Miami to roll while Chicago continues their downward spiral.
Final Bulls-Heat Prediction & Pick: Miami Heat -4 (-110)
