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The Los Angeles Clippers travel to the “Big Easy” to play their third game of the season against the New Orleans Pelicans on Monday. It’s time to continue our NBA odds series and make a Clippers-Pelicans prediction and pick.
The Clippers hold a record of 43-19 overall and are 36-25-1 against the spread. Los Angeles is coming off a close win over the Houston Rockets.
The Pelicans stand at 26-34 both overall and against the spread. New Orleans is coming off a loss to the San Antonio Spurs.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the opening Clippers-Pelicans odds.
NBA Odds: Clippers-Pelicans Odds
Los Angeles Clippers -2.5 (-110)
New Orleans Pelicans +2.5 (-110)
Over 229 Points (-110)
Under 229 Points (-110)
Why The Pelicans Could Cover The Spread
At first glance, this spread might seem low for a team that has been struggling against a legitimate title contender. But there are several factors here that should help the Pelicans and make the NBA odds the way they are for this contest.
For one, the Pelicans have shown up in both their matchups against the Clippers so far this season, and covered both times. The Pelicans lost their first matchup in L.A. by five points, but shocked the Clippers with a 20 point win in New Orleans a little over a month ago.
Additionally, Los Angeles will be missing several key players today. Kawhi Leonard, Serge Ibaka, and Patrick Beverley will all sit, meaning the Clippers will be without three of five starters.
Luke Kennard will also be out, and Rajon Rondo is questionable. If Rondo doesn't play, the Clippers will be seriously lacking backcourt depth.
Last time these two played, Leonard and company were incapable of guarding Zion Williamson, and that was with nearly every Clipper healthy.
Zion went off for 27 points on only 16 shots, setting the tone early in the blowout. Expect a similar performance from the sophomore, who is on a tear right now. Williamson is averaging 28.8 points on 61.1% shooting from the field in his last five games, and he's shot under 50% from the field only once in the month of April.
The Clippers simply don't have a player that can guard Williamson tonight. With Leonard out, Zion is primed for a monster game.
The Pelicans average the fifth most points in the league, and have already shown what they can do to a healthy Clippers defense. If Zion can get a little help from Ingram and a serviceable shooting night from Lonzo Ball, the Clips will be on upset watch.
Why The Clippers Could Cover The Spread
The Clippers are banged up right now, but they have some of the best depth in the league. Los Angeles has already shown they are more than capable of winning games with their second unit.
Just five days ago, the Clippers defeated a very solid Grizzlies team with a starting lineup of Terance Mann, Kennard, Marcus Morris, Amir Coffey, and Ivica Zubac.
No disrespect to any of those guys, but that lineup had no business winning a game against a Western Conference playoff contender.
The Clippers second unit plays with passion and never lets up, and they'll have the services of Paul George tonight.
George is on his hottest stretch of the season, averaging 32.9 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 5,4 assists on 51% shooting from the field and 44.6% shooting from deep over his last eight contests.
PG will carry most of the scoring load tonight, but even with all the injuries, the Clippers have guys that can step up and drop 20, especially against a porous New Orleans defense.
The Pelicans allow 115.1 points a game, the fourth most in the NBA. They prefer to win games by shooting teams off the floor instead of getting consecutive stops.
If New Orleans doesn't score in bunches, they are nearly a guarantee to lose. In games where they score 110 points or fewer, the Pelicans are a miserable 2-17. The Clippers have fared a little better, going 8-13 in games where they cant break 110.
Clippers backers are probably right that the last matchup between these two was an outlier. The Pelicans shot 65% from the field and 46% from three, both sums that they haven't equaled or topped since.
Against a Los Angeles defense that has typically been excellent at slowing opponents (5th least points allowed, 7th lowest three-point percentage allowed) it's highly unlikely the Pelicans get close to their previous offensive output again which may have an affect on the NBA odds for this one as it pertains to the over / under.
Final Clippers-Pelicans Prediction & Pick
After an uninspiring performance against Houston in their last matchup, I think the fatigue of playing four games in seven days (three of them on the road) and injury problems finally catch up to the Clippers. Los Angeles nearly choked a win to the Rockets thanks to some lackadaisical closing, and if they go through a similar stretch tonight they won't be as lucky against New Orleans. Additionally, I'm expecting the Pelicans to come out fighting for their playoff lives while this looks like a perfect spot for LA to lay off the gas. I'll take the Pelicans to cover at minimum tonight, and sprinkle a little bit on the Pelicans ML.
FINAL PICK: NEW ORLEANS PELICANS +2.5: NOP 118, LAC 113
