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The Atlanta Hawks (4-3) visit Big Apple to take on the New York Knicks (3-3) on Wednesday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:40 pm ET. Below we continue our NBA odds series with a Hawks-Knicks prediction and pick.
The Hawks put together a solid start but have lost two consecutive games to the Bucks and Raptors. Atlanta has been brutal against the spread (ATS) at just 2-5… continuing a brutal cover trend from last season (46%). Five of their seven games have gone over after just 48% of games did so last year.
The Knicks have played well despite their 3-3 record thanks to consecutive losses to the Cavaliers and Bucks. New York is 3-3 against the spread after covering just 48% of games last year. The New York over is 4-1-1 this year – a flip from last season's 53% under rate.
New York took three of four games against Atlanta last season by margins of nine, 14, and nine. In Atlanta's lone win, the Hawks won by six. None of last year's matchups surpassed tonight's total of 233.5.
Here are the Hawks-Knicks NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NBA Odds: Hawks-Knicks Odds
Atlanta Hawks: +2.5 (-112)
New York Knicks: -2.5 (-108)
Over: 233.5 (-110)
Under: 233.5 (-110)
Article Continues Below
Why The Hawks Could Cover The Spread
The Hawks made rounds throughout the league after acquiring guard Dejounte Murray from the Spurs but the early returns have been a mixed bag. Murray himself has been excellent – averaging 20 points, 7.6 assists, 6.1 rebounds, and 2.0 steals per game. His impact on the team's success, though, is unclear thus far. The Hawks have been slightly above average on offense (12th in PPG and 11th in adjusted offensive efficiency) but have really struggled on defense (22nd in points allowed and 26th in adjusted defensive efficiency). Atlanta has also struggled on the glass as they're 25th in rebound margin.
While Murray has been stellar, this team still runs through point guard Trae Young. The 24-year-old averages 29 points and 9.7 assists per game despite brutal efficiency to begin the year. Young is only shooting 39.5% from the field and 32.1% from three – both career lows. Young is also coming off his worst game of the season – a 14-point, 10-turnover performance against the Raptors which saw him make just 3-13 shots. However, if there is hope for a bounce-back it comes in the form of Trae's proficiency at Madison Square Garden. Young has averaged 26.5 points and 8.8 assists per game on 45% shooting at MSG. He's had two 40-point games at MSG including his most recent appearance there last season where he scored 45 points and dished out 8 assists while shooting 13-25 overall. Young's love for MSG is something to keep in mind when making a Hawks-Knicks prediction.
Outside of Young and Murray, the Hawks rely on forwards De'Andre Hunter and John Collins to fill in the gaps offensively. Hunter averages 14 points on 50% shooting and makes nearly two threes per game on a 44% clip. Collins, on the other hand, does his work down low. Although his scoring is down from previous seasons, he's still averaging 13.7 points and 9.9 rebounds on 54% shooting.
Why The Knicks Could Cover The Spread
This year's Knicks look less like last year's dumpster fire and more like the 2020-21 team that made a surprise run to the playoffs. New York is hovering around the league average in both adjusted offensive (13th) and defensive (17th) efficiency. The Knicks are also an average rebounding team – placing 17th in rebound differential.
The Knicks' best trait, though, has to be their ability to take care of the ball. New York averages just 13.2 turnovers per game – good for eighth in the league. A big reason for this is the addition of point guard Jalen Brunson. Brunson was a surprise signing for the Knicks in the offseason and has already proved to be a stabilizing force in their starting lineup. Brunson is second on the team in scoring (18.2 PPG) and leads the team in assists (7.2 APG). He and fellow guard RJ Barrett easily play the most minutes on the team as they've become the go-to guys for New York.
Barrett has quietly developed into a very capable NBA starter in his fourth NBA season. Still just 22 years old, Barrett's scoring is slightly down from last year but that can be attributed to a brutal start from three. A 34% and 40% three-point shooter the previous two seasons, Barrett has shot just 22% from beyond the arc this year. He's coming off his best shooting night of the year, though, as he shot 6-10 overall and 3-4 from three in their loss to the Cavs. If Barrett can start to heat up from distance the Knicks could easily cover a 2-point home spread.
Final Hawks-Knicks Prediction & Pick
New York has looked a lot better this season and the Hawks still are piecing things together but Trae Young at Madison Square Garden gives New York the edge here. Expect a monster game from Trae en route to Atlanta covering.
Final Hawks-Knicks Prediction & Pick: Atlanta Hawks +2.5 (-112)
