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The number one seed in the East, the Miami Heat, defends home court tonight as they take on the 5th seed from the West, the Dallas Mavericks in this inter-conference matchup. Dallas continues to look at climbing up the western conference standings, being just three games back behind the Utah Jazz, while Miami just tries to maintain first place before heading into the All-Star break, with just a half of a game ahead lead on the Chicago Bulls. It’s time to continue our NBA odds series with a Mavericks-Heat prediction and pick.
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Here are the Mavericks-Heat NBA Odds, Courtesy of FanDuel
NBA Odds: Mavericks-Heat Odds
Dallas Mavericks: +4 (-110)
Miami Heat: -4 (-110)
Over: 208.5 (-110)
Under: 208.5 (-110)
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Why The Mavericks Can Cover The Spread
The Mavericks are coming off of a 99-97 loss to the Clippers, which ended their four-game winning streak, but that didn't stop Luka Doncic from putting up 45 points. In fact, Luka is on a historic hot streak, scoring 96 points over his last two games. That's the most points in a two-game span by any other player this season and the most by a Maverick in Dallas franchise history. It's not just the scoring that's impressive, the Mavericks are one of the best defensive teams in the league, allowing just 106.9 points per 100 possessions, ranking 5th in the league. If Dallas continues to lean on Luka Doncic for offensive output, they have a very big chance of flying out of Miami after tonight's game with a victory (or for bettors' sakes, a cover).
Why The Heat Can Cover The Spread
The Heat are coming off of a 115-111 victory over the Brooklyn Nets, which extends their winning streak to now five games. But with Tyler Herro ruled out and Jimmy Butler listed as questionable, there'll be a lot of pressure on the rest of the team to put up points and try to stop Luka Doncic at the same time. But no need to fear, as Bam Adebayo has been killing it lately, averaging 23.2 points and 10.8 rebounds in his last six games. The Heat are also one of the better defensive teams in the league, giving up just 107.4 points per 100 possessions, ranking them just one spot above the Mavericks at 6th in the league. As long as Jimmy Butler plays, and Bam Adebayo can keep up this hot pace, the Heat should look to take care of business at home tonight.
Final Mavericks-Heat Prediction & Pick
These two teams are almost identically opposite when it comes to betting stats. Dallas seems to love hitting Unders, going 35-20-2 for the Under, while Miami seems to enjoy hitting Overs, going 35-21-1 for the Over. So it's safe to say this literally could go either way – I wouldn't be surprised if the total came out to 208 or 209 on the dot, but I guess that's why oddsmakers include that pesky half-point hook. This is a very close game to call, especially when both teams thrive on defense, hence such the low over/under point. If Jimmy Butler plays, I'm taking the Heat -3.5 at home. If he's ruled out, I'd consider giving that over 208.5 a look. I don't love either pick, but you know what they say, life is too short to bet the under.
Final Mavericks-Heat Prediction & Pick: Miami -4 (-110) or Over 208.5 (-110)
