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The Dallas Mavericks are on the tail-end of a back-to-back as they play the last of their five-game road trip, heading to North Carolina to take on the Charlotte Hornets. It's time to continue our NBA odds series with a Mavericks-Hornets prediction and pick.
The Mavericks are coming off a 111-101 loss to the Philadelphia 76ers on Friday night in Philadelphia. Jalen Burns led the way with 24 points on 10 for 14 shooting, including 2 for 3 from beyond the arc. Luka Doncic struggled shooting 5 for 20 for 17 points, and only 2 for 10 from the 3-point line. Dallas as a team shot 46.3 percent from the field, and 37.5 percent from beyond the arc. Their free-throw woes hurt them as they only made 71.4 percent of their opportunities from the charity line. Dallas is 3-1 on the road trip so far, as they look to finish strong.
The Hornets defeated the Atlanta Hawks 116-106 on Wednesday. LaMelo Ball scored 22 points on 11 assists, while also grabbing eight rebounds. Montrezl Harrell contributed with 20 points off the bench. In addition, Terry Rozier and Mike Bridges each accounted for 18 points. The Hornets have won three in a row and are looking to build on that momentum as they face a Mavericks team playing the second game of a back-to-back.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Mavericks-Hornets NBA odds:
NBA Odds: Mavericks-Hornets Odds
Mavericks: -1.5 (-110)
Hornets: +1.5 (-110)
Over: 223 (-110)
Under: 223 (-110)
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Why The Mavericks Could Cover The Spread
Dallas has played exceptional on this road trip, with the lone loss coming Friday night to the 76ers. They have gone 6-4 this season in the tail end of back-to-back games. Therefore, they have shown that they can execute in this situation. However, this matchup with the Hornets will be entirely different from their previous match.
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When these teams met in December, Doncic did not play, and the Mavs relied on Kristaps Porzingis. The Mavs dominated the game thanks to Porzingis scoring 24 points, grabbing 13 rebounds, and five blocks. Since then, Dallas traded Porzingis to the Washington Wizards and received Spencer Dinwiddie and Dave Bertans. Dinwiddie has displayed his worth, nailing two game-winning shots over the last week. Above all, having Doncic available for this game will be huge.
The Mavericks are looking to sweep the season series for the first time since the 2018-2019 season. To do that, Dallas needs to avoid mistakes and terrible shots. They are 20th in the NBA in field goal percentage and just 18th from the free-throw line. They have struggled from the 3-point line, ranking 22nd in the league. Despite that, they have been successful this season thanks to Doncic leading the charge.
Doncic is averaging 28.0 points per game and bringing down 9.3 rebounds. He also has been their distribution maven as he leads the team with 8.6 assists per game. In other words, it all starts and ends with Doncic. The Mavericks will cover the spread if they can control the pace of the game, contain Ball and win the turnover battle.
Why The Hornets Could Cover The Spread
Charlotte has meandered around playoff contention throughout the whole season. They are 35-35 and in the 10th seed in the Eastern Conference. They have been the stereotypical average team, going 17-17 at home and 18-18 on the road. When they lost to the Mavericks during their showdown in Texas, Ball did not play. He makes a huge difference on a Hornets team trying to break through into the playoffs.
Ball has averaged 19.7 points per game and leads the team in assists, averaging 7.4 a game. His ability to see the floor has helped the Hornets on many occasions. Bridges is their leading scorer, averaging 20.0 points per game. Mason Plumlee has been their rock on the boards, grabbing 8.1 rebounds per game. Charlotte excels at 3-point shooting as they rank 9th in the league. Before his injury, Gordon Hayward was the biggest reason for this, shooting 39 percent from the triples. Without Hayward, Rozier and Ball have been their 3-point leaders. Rozier is shooting 37.8 percent from the triples, and Ball is nailing down 37.1 percent of his 3-point shots.
The Hornets will cover the spread if they can slow down Doncic, forcing him to pass the ball, forcing someone else to beat them. If they can get hot from the 3-point line, it will boost their chances of covering the spread and beating the Mavericks.
Final Mavericks-Hornets Prediction & Pick
This game will be a test for the Mavericks. After playing in Philadelphia, they had to board a plane immediately and head to Charlotte. That will be a factor in this game as the spread is razor-thin. Meanwhile, the Hornets have not played since Wednesday, and the extra rest could prove beneficial for them. If the Mavericks were playing on normal rest, they would be the easy pick. But because they are on a back-to-back, the Hornets will cover the spread.
Final Mavericks-Hornets Prediction & Pick: Hornets +1.5 (-110)
