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The Dallas Mavericks (15-16) visit the Minnesota Timberwolves (16-15) on Wednesday night. Action tips off at 8:10 pm ET. Below we continue our NBA odds series with a Mavericks-Timberwolves prediction and pick.
Dallas has lost three of their last four games to drop them to 10th place in the Western Conference. The Mavericks are 10-19-2 against the spread while 58% of their games have gone over. Minnesota has won three straight to vault them into eighth place in the West. The Timberwolves are 13-18 against the spread while 58% of their games have gone under. This will be the second of three meetings between the teams this season. Minnesota took the first meeting at home just two days ago by 10 points.
Here are the Mavericks-Timberwolves NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NBA Odds: Mavericks-Timberwolves Odds
Dallas Mavericks: -3 (-114)
Minnesota Timberwolves: +3 (-106)
Over: 230 (-110)
Under: 230 (-110)
Why The Mavericks Could Cover The Spread
Dallas has struggled of late despite possessing solid underlying metrics for the season. The Mavericks rank 21st in scoring and ninth in offensive rating. They've been solid defensively as well, ranking sixth in points allowed and 16th in defensive rating. Their biggest issue lies on the glass where they rank last in rebound differential and 28th in rebound rate. Dallas will be without Dorian Finney-Smith, Josh Green, and Maxi Kleber tonight while Dwight Powell is questionable due to an injury.
Dallas' role players have been decimated by injuries lately, however, they still have a strong chance to cover thanks to the play of Luka Doncic. Luka has a sky-high usage rating as everything on the Dallas offense runs first and foremost through him. That shows in his statistical profile as Doncic has put together an incredible stat line of 32.5 PPG, 8.2 RPG, and 8.6 APG. In addition to a near-triple double average, Doncic has remained efficient by shooting 49% from the field and 45% from beyond the arc. Luka is also incredibly skilled at drawing fouls and getting to the line as he attempts the fourth-most free throws per game and shoots 73% from the line. With the Timberwolves averaging the fifth-most fouls per game, expect Doncic to live at the free-throw line tonight.
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Doncic is the heart and soul of this Dallas team, but he'll need some assistance if Dallas wants to cover as road favorites against a team they just lost to. Big man Christian Wood is Dallas' second-leading scorer with 17.4 PPG. Wood is also the team's second-leading rebounder, averaging 8.2 RPG. Despite coming off the bench, Wood has cemented himself as Dallas' second-best player, and only his minute restrictions are holding him back from putting up gaudy numbers. Keep an eye on the status of opposing center Rudy Gobert. If Gobert is out Wood could feast down low against a vulnerable Timberwolves defense.
Why The Timberwolves Could Cover The Spread
Minnesota has started to heat up despite injuries to both of their starting big men. The Wolves possess an explosive offense that ranks eighth in scoring and 14th in offensive rating. They've been up and down on defense where they rank 23rd in scoring despite the 13th-ranked in defensive rating. The biggest issue Minnesota has is on the glass as they rank 22nd in rebound differential and 24th in rebound rate. Minnesota will be without Karl-Anthony Towns and Tauren Prince tonight while Rudy Gobert and Kyle Anderson are considered questionable.
Despite Gobert and KAT missing time, the Timberwolves have started to look like the caliber of a team many expected them to prior to the season. While missing two of your best players should hurt your success, the lack of big men on the floor has really opened things up for Anthony Edwards. ANT averages 23 PPG on 45% shooting but has really started to play well of late. He's scored 37 and 27 points in his last two games and has notably contributed in ways other than scoring. In Monday's win over Dallas, ANT was one assist shy of a triple-double. His recent success coupled with Monday's performance is worth keeping in mind before making a Mavericks-Timberwolves prediction.
Regardless of whether Gobert returns tonight, Minnesota would be smart to continue playing big man Naz Reid alongside Edwards. The stretch-five has taken off in recent games when given the opportunity and looks like a natural fit alongside Edwards. He's scored 27+ in two of his last three games and provides Minnesota with a shooting element they were previously lacking.
Final Mavericks-Timberwolves Prediction & Pick
Minnesota beat Dallas by 10 at home on Monday and given the injuries to the Mavericks, I love getting three points with the Timberwolves.
Final Mavericks-Timberwolves Prediction & Pick: Minnesota Timberwolves +3 (-106)
