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The Brooklyn Nets travel to Florida Tuesday to face off against the Toronto Raptors for the third time this season. It’s time to continue our NBA odds series and make a Nets-Raptors prediction and pick.
The Nets hold a record of 41-20 overall, but they're only 31-30 against the spread. Brooklyn is coming off a statement win over the Phoenix Suns.
The Raptors stand at 26-35 overall and 27-34 against the spread. Toronto is coming off a win over the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the Nets-Raptors odds.
NBA Odds: Nets-Raptors Odds
Brooklyn Nets -5 (-105)
Toronto Raptors +5 (-115)
Over 231 Points (-110)
Under 231 Points (-110)
Why The Nets Could Cover The Spread
The Nets have been playing well of late even without a fully healthy roster, covering in six of their last eight contests. Brooklyn most recently notched two impressive wins over the Boston Celtics and Phoenix Suns, winning and covering as favorites in both.
Now, for the first time in weeks, Kevin Durant's name is totally absent from the injury report. Durant will be fully ready to go as he works his way back from a lengthy absence.
KD didn't miss a beat in his first game back, dropping 33 points on a very efficient 12-of-21 from the field. His 3-point stroke also looked good as he connected on 2-of-3 from deep.
Against a Raptors defense that has played great interior defense but bled points from beyond the arc (seventh in opponent FG%, 25th in opponent 3P%), the Nets need Durant and company to bring it from beyond the arc.
Brooklyn just shot 47% from 3 against one of the best 3-point defenses in the league in the Suns, so it wouldn't be a shock to see them continue their hot shooting against the porous Toronto perimeter D. James Harden will miss this matchup, but the Nets still have a whopping six guys shooting 37% or better from deep on at least three attempts per game.
Defensively, the Nets will miss the energy of Bruce Brown along the perimeter to match up with Toronto's crafty backcourt, but they should still have enough to slow a streaky Raptors team that ranks in the middle of the pack offensively.
Even if the Raptors make some shots early, the difference in firepower between these two squads is significant, and Brooklyn can make up for early deficits quickly with its two stars.
Why The Raptors Could Cover The Spread
The Raptors have covered in five of their last six games. When given six or more points as underdogs, the Raptors are 4-1 against the spread.
This season, Toronto has dominated Brooklyn. Nick Nurse's group has already posted two wins against this championship favorite, winning outright as heavy underdogs in both situation.
On both occasions, the Raptors shot the 3-pointer at a very efficient clip, which is the key ingredient to Toronto wins this season.
The Raptors are nearly entirely reliant on the deep ball. They get a whopping 39.6% of their points from beyond the arc, the third-highest mark in the league.
When the 3-pointers are falling, Toronto can hang with anyone. When those shots are missing, things get ugly.
The good news for the Raptors is the Nets have struggled to guard the 3 all season. Brooklyn allows opponents to hit 36.7% on 3s, and there's a tendency to be involved in high-scoring matchups.
Even without one of their best shooters in Gary Trent Jr., the Raptors have a roster of capable shooters like Kyle Lowry and Fred VanVleet who can expose the Nets' perimeter defense.
On their own defensive end, the Raptors will miss Chris Boucher's interior presence. They won't have to deal with James Harden, but the Nets still have plenty of firepower.
OG Anunoby will be the most important Raptors defensive player. As one of the top perimeter defenders in the league, Anunoby will be matched up with Durant frequently. If he can prevent Durant from getting in a groove early, the Raptors can hope to slow an explosive offense and get enough perimeter shots to go to keep this game close.
Final Nets-Raptors Prediction & Pick
The odds that this Raptors team gets three straight wins against a team favored to win the title this year aren't good. They've done an admirable job so far in this matchup, but this is the Nets' game to lose. In the end, this game will come down to 3-point efficiency. Brooklyn shoots the three at a 38.8% clip for the third-highest mark in the league, and the Raptors shoot it at 37.0% for the 13th-best mark. While there's always a chance the Raptors catch fire like they did against the Denver Nuggets and Golden State Warriors earlier this season, I'll play the percentages here. Give me Brooklyn to cover against Toronto for the first time this season.
FINAL NETS-RAPTORS PREDICTION AND PICK: NETS 121, RAPTORS 108 (NETS -5)
