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The Indiana Pacers are set to face off against the Boston Celtics Friday night. It is a matchup of two teams headed in opposite directions. So, let's continue our NBA odds series and make a Pacers-Celtics prediction and pick.
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This has been a season of two different stories for the Boston Celtics. The first couple of months was filled with underperformance and a number of losses. The Celtics were almost 10 games below .500 at one point, and were toward the bottom of the eastern conference. It left many people to ponder whether or not superstars Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown could actually play together. Then the calendar turned to 2022.
Since then, the Celtics have completely turned their season around. They went from one of the weaker defensive teams in basketball to undeniably the best defensive team in the NBA. At one point, Boston won 24 of 28 games and climbed to the top of the eastern conference. A couple of losses in a row have them a couple games back, but that only makes this game that much bigger for the Celtics.
Meanwhile, the Pacers are in full tank-mode. They traded away Domantas Sabonis to the Sacramento Kings at the trade deadline. They are 25-52 this season and clearly looking toward the future. So, let's get into the action and make a prediction and pick for the Pacers Celtics game.
Here are the Pacers-Celtics NBA odds,courtesy of FanDuel.
NBA Odds: Pacers-Celtics Odds
Boston Celtics: -14.5 (-114)
Indiana Pacers: +14.5 (-106)
Over: 226.5 (-110)
Under: 226.5 (-110)
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Why The Pacers Could Cover The Spread
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Despite playing for the future, the Pacers still have some pretty good talent on their team. Trading Sabonis brought them back an unexpected growing star in Tyrese Haliburton. They also acquired one of the best three-point shooters in the NBA in Buddy Hield. Hield, since the trade, has played as well offensively as he has during his career. So, Indiana has more talent than their record shows.
But one of the key reasons they could cover this massive spread has less to do with them, and more to do with their opponent. The Celtics were dealt a really difficult blow earlier this week, as it was announced that Robert Williams III is having knee surgery to repair a torn meniscus. Williams III is second in the NBA in blocks per game behind only Rudy Gobert. He was in the conversation for Defensive Player of the Year. Since his injury, the Celtics have lost two straight games and their defense has not looked nearly as dominant.
If the Pacers can get some looks down low without Williams III there, that should space the floor enough for shooters like Hield to take advantage from the outside. Considering 14.5 is so many points, there is obviously an argument to be made for the Pacers being on the right side.
Why The Celtics Could Cover The Spread
It might be a huge spread to cover, but even without Williams III, this is still a very bad team versus a very good team. Boston still has another Defensive Player of the Year nominee in Marcus Smart. It's not difficult to say that the Celtics have the three best players in this game in Tatum, Brown and Smart.
As a team this year, the Celtics are 41-35-1 against the spread. They are even better than that at home. Meanwhile, the Pacers are one of the worst teams against the spread in the NBA at 34-41-2. So, even though they are a bad team that has been large underdogs frequently, they still struggle to cover.
Beyond that, you must figure that Boston will be motivated to win this game going away. After two straight losses, the Celtics are in need of righting the ship and doing so quickly. They are two games behind the Miami Heat for the top spot in the eastern conference, and only a half game ahead of the Philadelphia 76ers for the division lead. Logically, they probably also want to prove to themselves that they can still be a dominant basketball team without Williams III.
Final Pacers Celtics Prediction and Pick
I believe the Celtics will hold nearly a 20-point lead for much of this game. After all, they have been crushing teams over the last month. But if you look at those games, they were almost all against playoff teams. I know that doesn't make sense, but go take a look. They crushed the Warriors, Grizzlies, Nuggets, Jazz, Sixers and TWolves. However, they simply beat some of their lesser opponents by around 10. I expect that to happen again as Boston will bench their starters for much of the fourth quarter. They have bigger fish to fry in their final three games against elite competition. Plus, you get a little bit of that added juice going this way with the -106 with Indiana as opposed to laying a little extra on Boston at -114.
Pick: Pacers +14.5 (-106)
