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The Indiana Pacers face off against the Los Angeles Lakers in a cross-conference clash on Tuesday. It’s time to continue our NBA odds series and make a Pacers-Lakers prediction and pick.
The Pacers currently hold a record of 16-19 overall and 14-21 against the spread. Indiana closed the first half of the season on a loss to the Denver Nuggets.
The Lakers stand at 24-13 but are only 17-20 against the spread. Los Angeles is coming off a loss to the Sacramento Kings in which neither LeBron James nor Anthony Davis played.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the opening Pacers-Lakers odds.
NBA Odds: Pacers vs. Lakers Odds
Indiana Pacers +5 (-112)
Los Angeles Lakers -5 (-108)
Over 216.5 Points (-115)
Under 216.5 Points (-105)
Why The Pacers Could Cover The Spread
The Pacers have been one of the more consistent teams in the league all year. They rarely range to high or too low.
In 2021, the margin of victory in a Pacers game has surpassed 20 points only twice in thirty matchups. 18 of these games have ended in single-digit margins.
Judging by their track record, it looks like Indiana has a chance of keeping this one close against a Lakers team without their second-best scorer.
As reflective of their record and history of close games, Indiana isn't excellent or terrible in any single category.
They rank in the middle of the league (10th-20th) in the following statistics: Points per game, field goal percentage, three-point percentage, free-throws attempted, and turnovers per game.
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Considering the Lakers have struggled on offense without AD, Indiana doesn't have to score 115 points tonight to win or cover.
L.A. has topped 120 points only three times since Anthony Davis went down, and two of those instances were against the bottom two defensive teams in the league in the Kings and the Wizards. The Lakers only have one double-digit victory in ten games.
The key for Indiana is to play the same disciplined defense they have all season and grind it out against a Los Angeles team that is offensively handicapped.
On offense, look for Domantas Sabonis to dominate the painted area. Fresh off his second All-Star bid, Sabonis can feast on a Lakers team that is missing both Davis and Marc Gasol tonight.
Without a shot-blocker or true interior intimidator in the key, Sabonis could be the difference-maker tonight.
Why The Lakers Could Cover The Spread
While the Pacers don't get blown out often, they also rarely cover as underdogs. Indiana's record against the spread when Vegas tabs their opponent as the favorite is a lowly 4-8.
Their record is even worse against strong defensive teams. Against teams that rank in the top ten of least points allowed per game, Indiana is only 2-8. The Lakers allow the second least points in the league.
While the Lakers are missing some key defensive pieces tonight, they have still shown the ability to keep opponents off the board.
When LeBron plays, Los Angeles has held opponents to under 100 points three times in the last nine games. They held the Brooklyn Nets, the most efficient offense in the league, to only 109 points, 12 points below Brooklyn's average output.
The Lakers will be short of size today, and Indiana will try to force the issue down low all game. The key for L.A. will be forcing Sabonis and Turner out of the painted area and making the Pacers shoot jumpers.
Indiana gets just over 53 points a game in the paint, the fourth-most in the league. However, they make only 12.1 three-pointers per contest, the ninth least in the league.
The Lakers will aim to make Indiana jump shooters tonight and get enough points out of LeBron and Dennis Schroder to pull away late.
Final Pacers-Lakers Prediction & Pick
With neither team's offense really clicking right now, this should be a grind-it-out game that comes down to the last few minutes. The biggest advantage here belongs to the Pacers, who should dominate the painted area with two 6'11” centers. I think the win goes to the team who gets the easiest baskets, and Sabonis and Turner should each get a handful of them. I'll take the Pacers to cover the spread in a close one in L.A.
FINAL PACERS-LAKERS PREDICTION & PICK: INDIANA PACERS +5
