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The New Orleans Pelicans (19-12) visit the Oklahoma City Thunder (14-18) on Friday night. Action tips off at 8:10 pm ET. Below we continue our NBA odds series with a Pelicans-Thunder prediction and pick.
New Orleans snapped a four-game skid in their last outing to keep them in third place in the Western Conference. The Pelicans are 16-15 against the spread while 58% of their games have gone over. Oklahoma City has won three straight to bump them up to 12th place in the West. The Thunder are 20-12 against the spread while 56% of their games have gone over. This will be the second of four meetings between the two teams. New Orleans stole the first matchup at home, 105-101.
Here are the Pelicans-Thunder NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NBA Odds: Pelicans-Thunder Odds
New Orleans Pelicans: +3 (-110)
Oklahoma City Thunder: -3 (-110)
Over: 230.5 (-110)
Under: 230.5 (-110)
Why The Pelicans Could Cover The Spread
New Orleans fell off after their impressive climb to the top of the West but remains a potent team despite numerous injuries. The Pelicans are elite offensively, ranking third in scoring and fifth in offensive rating. They are a strong defensive unit as they rank 14th in points allowed and sixth in defensive rating. New Orleans ranks seventh in rebound differential and ninth in rebound rate. The Pelicans will notably be without Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson tonight. The team listed CJ McCollum and Larry Nance Jr. as questionable.
With Zion and BI unavailable, guard CJ McCollum has picked up the slack and good things have happened. CJ scored a season-high 40 points in their win over San Antonio last night but is listed as questionable tonight. We expect him to play, however, despite it being a back-to-back. Assuming he's active, CJ is in a great spot to continue his recent play matched up with a weak OKC perimeter defense. He's averaged over 30 PPG in his last four games and has the ability to catch fire at any moment. McCollum's recent hot streak is absolutely something betters need to keep in mind before making a Pelicans-Thunder prediction.
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Whether McCollum plays or not, center Jonas Valanciunas is likely to continue to take on a larger role. He's scored 37 and 16 points in his last two games while grabbing double-digit rebounds in both appearances. He showed how he can take over a game against the Bucks when he dropped 37 points, 18 rebounds, and four assists. Despite the loss, the potential for a similar game is something betters need to be aware of. While it is unlikely he will repeat that performance, he showed the ability to impact the game again last night. The burley center presents Oklahoma City with a major matchup problem down low as they are weak against opposing centers. Expect a strong night from him – particularly on the glass.
Why The Thunder Could Cover The Spread
Oklahoma City is a frisky team despite their youth and has the second-best cover rate in the NBA. They are solid offensively, ranking 10th in scoring and 23rd in offensive rating. They can be exposed defensively with ranks of 25th in points allowed and 11th in defensive rating. Their weakest aspect is their ability to rebound as they rank 28th in rebound differential and 26th in rebound rate.
Oklahoma City's ability to cover starts with how star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander plays. Considering how well they've done at covering this season, it's safe to say he's played pretty well. That would be an understatement, as SGA averages an absurd stat line of 31.2 PPGm 4.7 RPG, and 5.7 APG while shooting 50% from the field. He's incredibly skilled at drawing fouls at getting to the line (10.3 free throw attempts per game) and is nearly automatic from the charity stripe (93%). SGA is also a menace on defense where he averages 1.7 SPG and 1.0 BPG. He's a worthy All-Star candidate and the single-biggest reason OKC has a chance tonight. The Pelicans gave him some problems in their first meeting but a bounce-back is inevitable.
SGA will need some help, however, if they want to cover. In recent games that help has come from Luguentz Dort. Dort has averaged 17 PPG over the last three games while shooting 49% from the field and 42% from three. He has served as the robin to SGA's Batman on numerous occasions this season, including in their previous matchup with the Pelicans. Despite the loss, Dort contributed 14 points on 6-13 shooting.
Final Pelicans-Thunder Prediction & Pick
It's hard to trust the Thunder as favorites but given the health questions surrounding the Pelicans, let's bet on the best player (SGA) to carry his team to a cover.
Final Pelicans-Thunder Prediction & Pick: Oklahoma City Thunder -3 (-110)
