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The San Antonio Spurs take on the Dallas Mavericks in a Texas showdown as the NBA resumes play after the All-Star break. It’s time to continue our NBA odds series and make a Spurs-Mavericks prediction and pick.
The Spurs stand at 18-14 both overall and against the spread. San Antonio lost their last game before the break, falling to the Oklahoma City Thunder.
The Mavericks hold a record of 18-16 overall, and they are only 15-19 against the spread. Dallas closed the first half of the season on a three-game winning streak, with the last win coming over the Thunder.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the opening Spurs-Mavericks odds.
NBA Odds: Spurs-Mavericks Odds
San Antonio Spurs +4 (-110)
Dallas Mavericks -4 (-110)
Over 226 PTS (-110)
Under 226 PTS (-110)
Why The Spurs Could Cover The Spread
At first glance, it would seem like the biggest advantage Dallas has tonight is their high-powered offense. Realistically, they have performed only slightly better than the much less publicized San Antonio offense.
The Mavs score less than one point more on average a night, averaging 111.8 points per contest to the Spurs 111.0. Both San Antonio and Dallas score the same amount of points in the paint per game at 44.5 per game.
Dallas' buckets might be flashier, but the end product is close to the same.
The Mavs don't even hold a huge advantage at the three-point line. While the Mavericks shoot more threes, they are less successful. San Antonio actually holds an edge in three-point percentage, shooting 36.3% to Dallas' 35.0% from deep.
The Spurs defense is a solid matchup for a streaky Dallas offense.
The Mavs make just under 18 free throws a game, getting about 16% of their points from the stripe. The Spurs play disciplined defense, committing the second least fouls in the league.
If Luka Doncic and company come out cold from the perimeter, they can't rely on too many free throws or easy buckets to get their rhythm.
The Spurs discipline doesn't just show on the defensive end. On offense, they average the least turnovers in the league and are the only team to give the ball away less than 11 times a game.
Against a Dallas defense that ranks in the bottom half of the league in point allowed, the Spurs should easily hang around in this contest.
Why The Mavericks Could Cover The Spread
The two biggest factors for the Mavericks tonight will be winning the three-point battle and turning this game into a shootout.
The Mavs are 12th in the league in made threes, while the Spurs are 25th. In typical fashion for Popovich, San Antonio's game does not force the three-point shot. San Antonio has ranked in the bottom five for three-point makes for four years running now.
Dallas doesn't need to make a higher percentage of threes to win this game. They just need to make more of them.
They proved this in the last meeting between these two, where the Mavs allowed the Spurs to shoot 43% from downtown, but San Antonio only launched 28 three-pointers. Dallas shot 39 treys and pulled out a shootout victory.
Dallas shoots nearly seven more threes a game than San Antonio, and they have the personnel to win a high-scoring game. Between Luka, Tim Hardaway Jr., Josh Richardson, and Kristaps Porzingis, the Mavs have four high volume shooters. They just need one to catch fire to run up the points quickly.
The Spurs have not defended the three-pointer well all season. They've allowed opponents to shoot 38.3% from downtown, the fifth-highest opponent percentage in the NBA.
San Antonio is simply not built for high-scoring battles. When opponents score 115 points against the Spurs, they are 7-2 overall.
Look for Dallas to attempt to run the score up early and shoot San Antonio off the floor.
Final Spurs-Mavericks Prediction & Pick
The Mavericks are an exciting team to watch, but there's little consistency in their play. They'll score 130 one night against a solid defensive squad, and then fail to break 90 two days later. The Spurs range far less, and have similar statistics in nearly every important category. Add that to the fact that the Spurs have been excellent at covering on the road (9-4 ATS), and I'll gladly take the four points here for San Antonio.
FINAL PICK: SAN ANTONIO SPURS +4
