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The Phoenix Suns remain in Texas for their second straight game against the Dallas Mavericks. With that said, it’s time to continue our NBA odds series and make a Suns-Mavs prediction and pick.
The Suns stand at 10-8 both overall and against the spread, while the Mavs hold a record of 8-12–but are 9-11 against the spread.
In their last matchup, the Suns pulled out a close win over Dallas, winning by a final score of 111-105.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the opening NBA odds for the Western Conference showdown.
NBA Odds: Suns-Mavericks Odds
Phoenix Suns +2.5 (-110)
Dallas Mavericks -2.5 (-110)
Over 216.5 PTS (-110)
Under 216.5 PTS (-110)
Why The Suns Could Cover The Spread
Coming in to this matchup, the Suns are without a doubt the hotter of the two teams.
Dallas is ice cold right now, losing five straight and failing to cover in all of them. On the other hand, the Phoenix has covered in two straight and has been profitable as the underdog, covering four out of six NBA matchups.
On top of that, the Suns have consistently overperformed against the Mavs in recent history. In the last eight matchups, Phoenix is 7-1 against the spread against Dallas.
On the defensive end, the Suns continue to do a good job on the perimeter.
Phoenix holds the fifth-best defensive rating in the league, stemming from their defense against 3-point shooters. The Suns have allowed the second least 3-pointers in the NBA and hold opponents to the eighth lowest percentage from deep.
Dallas shoots the lowest 3-point percentage in the league and has struggled to connect from deep all year.
Against a Mavericks offense that already doesn't shoot the ball well, we could see Phoenix make this a low-scoring game yet again.
If this turns into a grind it-out, defensive minded game, Phoenix holds a clear advantage.
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Why The Mavericks Could Cover The Spread
Even though Phoenix has undeniably been the better squad defensively, Dallas has the leg up in a few areas.
The Mavericks' interior defense has been better than the Suns, allowing less total field goals and holding teams to a lower field goal percentage inside the arc.
While Phoenix has been elite in guarding the perimeter, Dallas isn't too shabby themselves. Even though they have conceded more triples than the Suns, the Mavs have actually held opponents to a lower percentage from deep.
On a good night, the Mavs can hang with a tough Phoenix defense. They could be dealt a free pass with the absence of Devin Booker, who is questionable with a hamstring injury.
Booker is the Suns' leading scorer, averaging 22.9 points a game on 47 percent shooting from the field. If he is hobbled by the injury or doesn't play, the offense will face a major handicap.
The key for the Mavs in the game will be mustering up enough perimeter shooting and taking care of the ball to get quality possessions.
In their last matchup, Dallas uncharacteristically turned the ball over 15 times, three more times then average.
If Dallas can take care of the ball against a team that forces the second least turnovers in the league, they should get enough quality looks to make this another close game.
Final Suns-Mavericks Prediction & Pick
After the Mavs' last loss, I predict Rick Carlisle will make the adjustments necessary to turn the ship around on Monday night. The Mavericks are too good of an NBA team with many quality players to keep this losing streak going on much longer.
Even if Devin Booker plays, I'll take the Mavs to finally get a bounce back as the offense breaks out against a familiar opponent.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: DAL 116, PHX 108 (MAVERICKS -2.5)
