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The Golden State Warriors face off against the Portland Trail Blazers for the third time this season. It’s time to continue our NBA odds series and make a Warriors-Blazers prediction and pick.
The Warriors currently hold an overall record of 19-16 and are 18-17 against the spread. Golden State is coming off a blowout loss to the Lakers.
The Blazers stand at 19-14 but are 18-15 against the spread. Portland is coming off a win over the Charlotte Hornets.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the opening Warriors-Blazers odds.
NBA Odds: Warriors vs. Blazers Odds
Golden State Warriors -1.5 (-113)
Portland Trail Blazers +1.5 (-107)
Over 233 Points (-110)
Under 233 Points (-110)
Why The Blazers Could Cover The Spread
Portland has lost four of their last five matchups, but their form is not as bad as it seems at first glance.
Three of the four L's came courtesy of contenders in the Suns, the Lakers, and the Nuggets. The only bad loss was to a Wizards team that was in the midst of a red-hot stretch.
Portland broke out of a major offensive slump against the Hornets, and they'll need to continue the hot shooting against the Warriors.
After failing to shoot better than 35% from beyond the arc in four straight games, the Blazers exploded to shoot 52% from deep against the Hornets.
Against a Warriors team that allows opponents to shoot 37.3% from three (11th worst in the league), Portland could drop another high percentage tonight.
The Blazers get 42.7% of their points via the three-pointer, the second-highest mark in the league. Essentially, Portland lives or dies by the three-point shot.
In their last 15 games, the Blazers are 9-0 when they shoot above 36% from deep. They are 0-6 when they shoot below that mark.
In a game that figures to see plenty of points, Portland holds the upper hand from beyond the arc, ranking in the top five in the league in three-point makes, attempts, and percentage.
Look for Damian Lillard and company to come out guns blazing.
Why The Warriors Could Cover The Spread
While the Blazers might be better from beyond the arc, the Warriors hold an edge defensively.
Portland owns one of the worst defensive ratings in the league and allows the sixth-most points per game at 115.1 per contest.
The Warriors hold opponents to the second-lowest field goal percentage in the league at 44.2%. If the Blazers shots aren't falling from beyond the arc, it will be extremely difficult for them to make up for it with easy buckets in the paint.
Even if this game becomes a shootout, the Warriors can hold their ground. To accomplish this, they'll need Stephen Curry to snap out of one of his coldest stretches of the season.
In his last three matchups, Curry is only 41% from the field and 23% from beyond the arc. For reference, Curry's totals on the season are 48% from the field and 42% from three.
This poor Portland defense might be exactly what Curry needs to snap out of his funk. The Warriors should place emphasis on getting Curry the ball early and often to get him in rhythm.
The last time the Warriors played the Blazers, Curry dropped a season-high 62 and nailed eight threes. Golden State would love to see a performance even half as good tonight.
Depending on how the game shakes out, the Warriors have to either get a major Curry rebound game or shut off the three-point line. If they get both, this matchup could get out of hand fast.
Final Warriors-Blazers Prediction & Pick
Both of these teams rely heavily on their stars to carry them offensively. Taking into account that Curry has been ice cold and the Blazers have a better chance of withstanding a cold night from Lillard, I'll take the Blazers to win this matchup. The Warriors have looked terrible when Curry is off, and Portland is coming off one of their best offensive performances of the season. My money's on the Blazers to continue their streak and win a shootout in the Moda Center.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: POR 122, GSW 118 (POR +1.5)
