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The Miami Heat took Game 1 as the Sixers look to even the series! It's time to continue our NBA odds series with a 76ers-Heat prediction and pick.
This was supposed to be a very entertaining series. Instead, it might turn into a one-sided war as the Miami Heat should have zero issues advancing to the Eastern Conference Finals. Without Joel Embiid available for Philadelphia, the Sixers will struggle to remain in this series going up against Jimmy Butler and the top-seeded Heat.
Miami took Game 1, but not after a hard-fought battle from the 76ers. Philadelphia actually led at halftime but played out a horrible second half to allow the Heat to take over. It's going to be tough for the Sixers to compete without Embiid but one thing is for sure, if they want to make it close late in the game former MVP James Harden must improve his play. 16 points in a game without Embiid just won't cut it.
Here are the 76ers-Heat NBA Playoffs odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NBA Playoffs Odds: 76ers-Heat Odds
Philadelphia 76ers: +8 (-110)
Miami Heat: -8 (-110)
Over: 207.5 (-110)
Under: 207.5 (-110)
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Why The 76ers Could Cover The Spread
As mentioned above, the biggest reason why they can cover this spread is if Harden steps up. The former MVP has had his ups and downs so far in Philadelphia but we all know how good he can be. He shot just 5-13 in the loss and that's not going to work for the Sixers. Harden needs to take over and also get his teammates more involved. He certainly tried in Game 1 but was unsuccessful finishing with just five assists. The Sixers need triple-double Harden tonight if they want to cover this spread.
Tobias Harris played very well ending with 27 points off 11-18 shooting. As a team, however, they shot horribly from beyond the arc, going 6-34 and shooting just 17.6%. That must change because the Heat contain a very good defense. The Sixers can't afford to not shoot the ball well again tonight or else they will likely go down 2-0 in the series.
On the defensive end, a key factor tonight will be to try and shut down Bam Adebayo. Embiid would have the duty of guarding him but without him available, it's going to be a team effort to try and shut down one of the top centers in the game. Adebayo finished with 24 points and 12 rebounds in Game 1. It would make sense to keep Deandre Jordon on him but he only played 17 minutes.
If Harden and Harris play well offensively and they contain Adebayo just a little, the Sixers will have a chance to cover this 8-point spread.
Why The Heat Could Cover The Spread
Miami's test is a lot easier without one of the best centers the game has ever seen on the other side. Embiid will finish top-2 in the MVP voting this season and the Heat are lucky to avoid him because of his injury. The Heat should dominate this series as Embiid is really everything to the 76ers right now. James Harden has not been the usual Harden we are used to seeing. Because of that, the Heat just need to play their style of defense and they should have no problem winning as they did on Monday night.
Adebayo shot 8-10 and there was nothing that was going to stop him. Sixers head coach Doc Rivers must not trust his longtime center DeAndre Jordan because he only played 17 minutes and didn't seem to be a factor. Miami has many weapons, however, and more than the Sixers can handle. Tyler Herro came off the bench and put up 25 points to lead the team in scoring. If Herro does that, then Jimmy Butler doesn't need to worry about scoring as much and he can focus on his defense.
This spread is currently at a spot where it's tough to decide even though they won by 14 in Game 1. The 76ers played poorly on offense in the second half and I expect that to improve. Because of that, we could see a different outcome tonight.
Final 76ers-Heat Prediction & Pick
This is the biggest game of the season for the 76ers. They need Harden to step up tremendously and I think he does that. I won't go as far as saying they will win this game, but I like the 76ers chances of covering this spread tonight. Consider taking the over at 207.5 as well as this should be a higher-scoring affair.
Final 76ers-Heat Prediction & Pick: 76ers +8 (-110) & over: 207.5 (-110)
