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The Utah Jazz and the Dallas Mavericks will meet in Game 1 of the NBA Western Conference Quarterfinals on Saturday in Texas. It's time to continue our NBA odds series with a Jazz-Mavericks prediction and pick.
The Utah Jazz had a solid season finishing 49-33 and winning the Southwest Division. However, Utah enters the playoffs as the fifth seed. Also, Utah went 4-7 over the final 11 games. The Jazz must arise from that season-ending slump and prepare to face the Mavericks.
The Mavericks are in trouble after all-star Luka Doncic strained his left calf last Sunday. Now, Dallas is uncertain if he will be ready for Game 1. The Mavs are scrambling to game plan for the Jazz without him. Dallas has played 17 games without Doncic this season and is 8-9 when he misses action. Doncic might miss the first two games of the series. Now, the Mavs must prepare to face the Jazz without their top star and everything on the line.
This will be the third time the Jazz and the Mavericks have met in the playoffs. The Mavericks defeated the Jazz three games to two in the 2001 Western Quarterfinals. Additionally, the teams met in the 1986 Western Conference Quarterfinals, with the Mavericks winning that series three games to two.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Jazz-Mavericks NBA playoffs odds:
NBA Playoffs Odds: Jazz-Mavericks Odds
Jazz: -5 (-110)
Mavericks: +5 (-110)
Over: 210 (-110)
Under: 210 (-110)
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Why The Jazz Could Cover The Spread
Utah has the edge in several categories. It also helps that they might not face Doncic. This will be the second time the Jazz have faced the Mavs without Doncic this season. The Jazz overcame the Mavs 120-116 at home on Christmas Day. However, the only reason the game stayed close was Kristaps Porzingis and Jalen Brunson. Both scored 27 points each. Since then, Porzingis was traded to the Washington Wizards, and Brunson has maintained a secondary role. Additionally, the Jazz have all their stars.
Donovan Mitchell leads the Jazz with 25.9 points per game. He is the top option when the Jazz needs points. Next, Bojan Bogdanovic is the next man, as he averages 18.1 points per game. Utah has the top rebounder on the planet in Rudy Gobert. He is averaging 14.7 boards per game. In addition to points and rebounds, Mitchell and Mike Conley each averaged 5.3 assists per game. The Jazz have the playmakers to cover all aspects of the game.
Therefore, the Jazz will cover the spread if Gobert dominates the boards. Additionally, if Mitchell and Conley can put up buckets, Utah will control the pace of this game and force Dallas to play catchup. Lastly, the Jazz will cover the spread if they do not turn the ball over. Additionally, they must force turnovers out of a Dallas team that was third in the league in ballhandling.
Why The Mavericks Could Cover The Spread
Dallas has its hands full. However, life must go on, and the next men must step up. In this case, Bronson and Spencer Dinwiddie are the next men. Dinwiddie was the player involved in the Porzingis trade. Dinwiddie has dealt with this already. On March 5, 2022, Dinwiddie led the Mavs to a 114-113 win over the Sacramento Kings by scoring 36 points. He has proven that he can take over the fame when Doncic is out. However, the Jazz are not the Kings.
The Jazz are a difficult opponent as they control plenty of categories. Dinwiddie and Bronson will both need to step up in the scoring department. Additionally, the pair will have to stop the Jazz attack. In this case, that means scoring and rebounding. Facing Gobert has never been fun for the Mavs, and it will be even less fun without their top rebounder. Who's going to box Gobert out? That is something the Mavs must figure out if they plan to cover the spread at all. They must force Utah into making mistakes so the game does not come down to a battle on the boards.
The Mavericks will cover the spread if Dinwiddie and Bronson can adequately fill in for Doncic. Additionally, they need to win the battle of the boards, or at least not surrender completely. It is imminent that Dallas force Utah to turn the ball over. If they accomplish that, they will cover the spread.
Final Jazz-Mavericks Prediction & Pick
Dallas will struggle without Doncic. Now, they must face the Jazz, a team looking to make a statement. Teams can succeed without their star players if there are other options. However, Doncic leads the Mavs in every principle category. Losing him opened up a gaping hole and one that Dallas might not fill in.
Final Jazz-Mavericks Prediction & Pick: Jazz -5 (-110)
