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The Utah Jazz head back home to host the Dallas Mavericks for Game 3 on Thursday night! It's time to continue our NBA odds series with a Mavericks-Jazz prediction and pick.
Dallas has definitely shocked the basketball community with their play over the last two games. Without one of the best players in the world, the Mavs were able to win one at home to make this an entertaining series. Luka Doncic is expected to return, but it hasn't been official yet. With the way Dallas is playing right now, inserting Doncic back into the lineup could get them to the next round.
The Utah Jazz escaped Game 1 with a six-point victory thanks to the likes of Donovan Mitchell. Dallas led most of Game 1 but couldn't hold on as the Jazz found a way to win… as they should have. The Jazz lost in Game 2 but they should have won that game as well. They allowed Jalen Brunson to score a career-high 41 points to force a series tie. Utah needs to seriously regroup and figure out a new game plan because if Doncic comes back for Game 3, they could be in serious trouble.
Here are the Mavericks-Jazz NBA Playoffs odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NBA Playoffs Odds: Mavericks-Jazz Odds
Dallas Mavericks: +7.5 (-112)
Utah Jazz: -5.5 (-108)
Over: 209.5 (-110)
Under: 209.5 (-110)
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Why The Mavericks Could Cover The Spread
This clearly will change with the decision on Doncic. He's expected to try and play, but the odds are where they are at as if he would not suit up. Hew is currently a game-time decision. The Mavericks come into this game as the underdogs because of it.
With all that said, the Mavs proved they can win without him. Brunson might be the most underrated guard in the NBA as he is fresh off of a career night. Not only did he put up 41 at home, but he also made it look extremely easy doing so against a difficult defense. Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert are two of the top defensive players at their position and Mike Conley is even known for being a tough defender as well.
According to Tim MacMahon, Doncic is “feeling great” but doesn't have a status at this time. Adrian Wojnarowski updated the NBA community by stating that Doncic is trending toward “unlikely to play” in Game 3.
Nonetheless, the Mavericks are capable of covering this spread as it stands now because they are the underdog by a good amount. The Jazz are (29-12) at home this season so this season and the fans in Utah will definitely be a factor tonight. Dallas is (23-18) on the road this year so they saw success playing away from home.
Why The Jazz Could Cover The Spread
Utah needs to find a way to play better in the second half of games, especially the fourth quarter. Utah allowed 62 points in the second half in Game 2 and 33 in the 4th quarter alone. In a playoff game, that can not happen. It doesn't matter who the opponent is, allowing a team to catch fire like that in this kind of atmosphere is not going to work. The Jazz need to step up defensively because that was a poor performance in Game 2.
It seems as if Doncic will likely miss Game 3 unless a change of heart. It's the playoffs so it's tough to make these decisions. But the Mavericks don't necessarily need Doncic to play as they won the last game without him. The Jazz will certainly love to avoid Doncic once again and take a series lead again at home. They are favored by over seven points so it will have to be a dominant win if they want to cover this spread.
Expect both teams to be playing aggressively early on. The Jazz need to start out the game hot and not let Brunson and Spencer Dinwiddie find a rhythm. As stated earlier, Utah will need to hold on to that lead as they are notorious for giving it up. If we see Utah control the game for the entire 48 minutes they will cove this spread. They need this game badly as a loss would put the Mavs in the driver's seat with one of the best players in the game set to probably return in Game 4.
Final Mavericks-Jazz Prediction & Pick
With the change in arenas and the Jazz at home, I expect them to win this game without Doncic on the other side. I don't think they will win by eight points, however. We've seen the Jazz go on massive runs during the course of a game and completely take over. This is something they need to do if they want to cover this spread. Because of what happened in Game 2, I expect it to be close. Take the Mavericks to threaten the Jazz late in this game.
Final Mavericks-Jazz Prediction & Pick: Mavericks +7.5 (-112)
