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The Dallas Mavericks and Utah Jazz go at it for Game 4 of their Western Conference first-round series in a 4:30 PM ET tip on Saturday. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our NBA odds series, which includes our Mavericks-Jazz prediction, odds, and pick we have laid out below.
Despite playing without Luka Doncic in this series so far, Dallas has still found a way to go up 2-1. The Mavericks got another huge night from Jalen Brunson, who scored 31 points on 12-of-22 shooting. Spencer Dinwiddie struggled from the field, going just 6-of-21 but still finished with 20 points. Maxi Kleber continued his hot shooting for Dallas as he scored 17 points with four three-pointers.
Meanwhile, the Jazz lost back homecourt advantage after winning Game 1 and failed to take advantage of Doncic's absence. Utah fell behind early and trailed by 17 points at halftime. But the Jazz stormed back and inched to as close as one point. Dallas, however, finished the game on a 23-16 run, highlighted by some big plays from Brunson, Dinwiddie, and Dorian Finney-Smith. Donovan Mitchell led Utah with 31 points.
Here is how Fanduel has set the Mavericks-Jazz NBA Playoffs odds for this Saturday afternoon NBA matchup.
NBA Playoffs Odds: Mavericks-Jazz Odds
Dallas Mavericks: +6 (-114)
Utah Jazz: -6 (-106)
Over: 212.5 (-110)
Under: 212.5 (-110)
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Why the Mavericks could cover the spread
The Mavericks are understandably the underdogs in Game 4, as they have been the entire series actually. That's why it's quite a pleasant surprise that they're up in this series. The best way Dallas can cover the spread — and take a commanding 3-1 series lead, really — is if Luka Doncic plays. Doncic is still listed as questionable ahead of this afternoon's game. But the Slovenian Sensation was a full participant in practice and admitted he felt good, per Landon Thomas.
The Mavericks could continue to play it safe with Doncic, considering calf strains are a difficult injury to deal with. Dallas does have some wiggle room to work with to ensure he's in better condition for what could be a pivotal Game 5. But bringing Doncic back for Saturday with the possibility of taking a stranglehold in this series with the chance to close out is enticing as well.
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If Doncic continues to sit, the Mavericks could still roll the dice on the duo of Brunson and Dinwiddie to carry the load. They've proven in this series they can handle Utah's defense. They've punished the Jazz, particularly Rudy Gobert, on the pick-and-roll. The Mavericks have done a great job getting Gobert out of his comfort zone inside the paint. They're exploiting his instincts as a rim protector by bringing in Maxi Kleber, who has been stroking it from downtown.
Dallas' defense has been on-point as well. They've held Utah to just 34.2 percent shooting from three and have forced 38 turnovers in three games.
Why the Jazz could cover the spread
On paper, Utah should really be the favorite in this series, especially considering Dallas' injury situation. Not only are the Mavs missing Doncic, but they have also been without Tim Hardaway Jr., who was their main spark plug off the bench. But that obviously has not translated on the court. Nonetheless, this is essentially a must-win game for the Jazz since they do not want to enter Game 5 in Dallas trailing 3-1.
Donovan Mitchell is getting it done on the scoring department, averaging 32.7 percent through three games so far. But his shooting has been suspect at best, hitting just 41.3 percent from the field and just 25.0 percent from beyond the arc.
The Jazz must also find a way to involve Rudy Gobert, especially offensively. The big man is having a sub-par series so far, averaging just 9.3 points with 12 total shot attempts in three games. Credit Gobert for continuing to do his job on the glass, averaging 13.7 rebounds per game in this series. But for the most part, he hasn't looked like the All-Star that helped Utah to 49 wins this season.
The Jazz also found success in going small in Game 3, putting Eric Paschall at center. Utah outscored Dallas by nine with the 25-year-old at the five. This also allowed the Jazz to go downhill with the added speed. This is definitely worth considering heading into Game 4, but this would obviously mean holding their All-Star center out of the most important parts of the game. With that said, this should be an interesting development to monitor as Game 4 progresses.
Final Mavericks-Jazz Prediction & Pick
A lot of this hinges on whether Doncic is able to suit up. But regardless of Doncic's status, look for the Jazz to come out firing in this must-win situation. If he does suit up, he could still be a bit limited considering he's coming back from a calf strain. Take the Jazz on this one as they make their adjustments on matching up with Dallas.
Final Mavericks-Jazz Prediction & Pick: Jazz: -6 (-106)
