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The Denver Nuggets are looking to force a Game 6 as the Warriors want to end the series! It's time to continue our NBA odds series with a Nuggets-Warriors prediction and pick.
The Nuggets stole Game 4 in Denver after 37 points from Nikola Jokic. His performance showed that the Nuggets are capable of winning more games if he continues to play like that. They will need to find a way to win a game on the road here where they were (25-16) during the regular season.
The Warriors let one slip on Sunday as the Nuggets played very well to avoid the sweep. Jordan Poole has been the talk of The Town as he scored at least 27 points in the first three games of the series. He ended with just 11 in the loss while Steph Curry scored 33 off the bench. I think it's time to put one of the top point guards of all time back in the starting lineup. His minute restriction is terminated now and so he should be back in the starting lineup. If he isn't, then well I'm not sure what Steve Kerr is doing.
Here are the Nuggets-Warriors NBA Playoffs odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NBA Playoffs Odds: Nuggets-Warriors Odds
Denver Nuggets: +8.5 (-108)
Golden State Warriors: -8.5 (-112)
Over: 225.5 (-110)
Under: 225.5 (-110)
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Why The Nuggets Could Cover The Spread
The Nuggets should feel confident knowing they were able to avoid the sweep. A big reason for it was their 56% shooting as a team and 48% from beyond the arc. The Nuggets led at halftime and managed to hold on despite a big second half from the Warriors. Containing that squad with all of those shooters isn't easy. The Warriors shot just 35% from three in the loss and that likely won't happen again, especially at home. Curry finished just 3-11 and if had made just two more in Game 4 then they would have swept the Nuggets.
The Nuggets can cover this spread if they can carry over their shooting into Wednesday night. Becuase the Warriors are so lethal from deep, the Nuggets know they have to match it to keep it close. Game 4 was a huge example of that because they shot about 13% better from three.
There are also two names that are very important to the success of this team outside of Jokic. Aaron Gordon and Monte Morris. Gordon scored 21 in the win and Morris, 24. If it wasn't for those two stepping up and putting pressure on the Warriors then they would have stayed in Denver. Morris has been great taking over for Jamal Murray and Gordon can great mismatches with his speed. If the Nuggets find a way to keep it close for the first three quarters, then they should cover this spread.
Why The Warriors Could Cover The Spread
The Warriors are back home where they ended the regular season (31-10). This team elevates their game in The Bay and it will once again on Wednesday night. The Warriors will likely not shoot 35% again from three and as a result, find a way to cover this spread. The Warriors would need to win comfortably if they do want to cover, and coming off a loss might make bettors hesitant.
Curry will likely be inserted back into the starting lineup, especially since Poole didn't play great on Sunday. The Warriors will be back to full strength as they will be utilizing the starting lineup they had for most of the season. With Draymond Green back to running the show on the defensive end, the Dubs' defense will get back to their top-5 play soon enough.
I know that Poole has been exciting and he's turning into a superstar before our eyes. I don't believe the warriors need to rely on him, however, to be successful. Klay Thompson is fresh off 32 points and he will get back to his consistent play by the end of the playoffs. With all that said, the more Poole excels the more dangerous this team gets and they have a chance to work their way back to The Finals.
Final Nuggets-Warriors Prediction & Pick
Give me the Dubs in this one as they should control this game at home and win this game by at least nine points. I also like the over in this one, as they scored a combined 247 in Game 4 and it's currently at 225.5.
Final Nuggets-Warriors Prediction & Pick: Warriors -8.5 (-112) & over: 225.5 (-110)
