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The Golden State Warriors look to close out the series tonight as the Memphis Grizzlies aim to force a Game 6. It's time to continue our NBA odds series with a Warriors-Grizzlies prediction and pick.
The Warriors took control of the series after taking a 3-1 lead and winning both games in The Bay. The series took a massive turn when star Ja Morant went down with a knee injury. He is likely out for the remainder of the series and so it will now be very tough for the Grizzlies to win without him. Golden State won 101-98 in Game 4 without Morant's presence. Curry finished with 32 points and he will likely propel the Warriors to the West Conference Finals tonight.
Here are the Warriors-Grizzlies NBA Playoffs odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NBA Playoffs Odds: Warriors-Grizzlies Odds
Golden State Warriors: -4 (-112)
Memphis Grizzlies: +4 (-108)
Over: 218.5 (-110)
Under: 218.5 (-110)
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Why The Warriors Could Cover The Spread
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The Warriors should have zero issues covering this spread tonight. Yes, they only won by three last time out but they didn't shoot the ball well for a majority of that game. Golden State finished (9-37) from beyond the arc which is just 24.3%. I don't think the Warriors will repeat that poor performance and so they should be able to win this game by four on the road.
Without Morant for Memphis, the Warriors just need to worry about containing Jaren Jackson Jr. and Desmond Bane. Dillon Brooks and Tyus Jones are solid role players, but Bane and Jackson are the two that can really hurt them. Since the Grizzlies are on the verge of being eliminated, I expect the starters to play at least 38 minutes apiece tonight… besides Steven Adams.
The Warriors just need to continue to do what they do and light up the arena with their shooting. It's not very hard to improve from a team percentage of 24%, so expect the Warriors to possibly dominate the Grizzlies tonight. It could get out of control if the Dubs get hot from deep.
Gary Payton II, James Wiseman, and Andre Iguodala remain out for the Warriors.
Why The Grizzlies Could Cover The Spread
The Grizzlies' best factor for tonight will be their fans in Memphis. Since they have homecourt advantage, the Grizzlies are able to play this game and one more at home if they stay alive. The Memphis faithful will need to be very loud and hope that they can be a factor in the Warriors' performance. Their best bet is to make sure the Dubs don't get hot from three and keep them at a similar pace to Game 4.
Desmond Bane ended with just eight points in the loss. That can not happen again. If Bane doesn't score at least 15+ points I can not see them staying in this game. Both teams contain elite defenses as the Warriors were among the NBA's best all season long. It's not going to be an easy task for Bane, as Game 4 was a great example of that. However, he will have his fan base behind him tonight as they are begging him to put on a performance to keep them alive.
If Jackson, Brooks, and Jones all contribute and score consistently, then their chances of covering this spread improve. Because they are being given four points at home here, they don't have to win to cover. A majority of bettors will expect the Grizzlies to win tonight, however, if they are putting their hard-earned money on them.
The Grizzlies played very well at home this season at (30-11) while the Warriors finished just (22-19) on the road. Memphis must show up tonight at home like they have been all season long.
Final Warriors-Grizzlies Prediction & Pick
As a fan of the sport and the NBA, I would love to see the Grizzlies extend this series. I just don't see it happening without one of the best young stars in The Association. Take the Warriors to win this game by at least four points to advance to the WCF.
Final Warriors-Grizzlies Prediction & Pick: Golden State Warriors -4 (112)
