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It is the Conference USA Championship game as New Mexico State faces Liberty. It is time to continue our College Football odds series with a Conference USA Championship New Mexico State-Liberty prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.
New Mexico State enters the game at 10-2 on the year and has now won eight games in a row. They opened the season by being upset by UMass and losing 41-30. The early season was a general struggle for New Mexico State as well. They beat Western Illinois and New Mexico in a rivalry game but also lost to Hawaii and by 16 to Liberty. Since the last loss, to Hawaii, they have run through the rest of Conference USA to go 7-1 and make it to the title game. Only three games were within one score in those seven, with the closest being last time out, winning by just three on a field goal as time expired.
Meanwhile, Liberty is 12-0 and has dominated. They are currently ranked 24th in the college football playoff rankings. They have a chance to make a New Year's six games as well. With a win and a Tulane loss, they could be the top-ranked group of five teams, giving them a New Year's six games. Liberty has played just two games within a score this year. The first was a 21-16 win over Sam Houston in the fifth week of the year. The other was a seven-point win over Middle Tennessee. The two teams were tied at the end of the first half, and then at the end of three quarters. In the fourth, Liberty scored and shut out Middle Tennessee to take the win.
Here are the college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
Conference USA Championship Odds: New Mexico State-Liberty Odds
New Mexico State: +10.5 (-110)
Liberty: -10.5 (-110)
Over: 56.5 (-110)
Under: 56.5 (-110)
How to Watch New Mexico State vs. Liberty
Time: 7:00 PM ET/ 4:00 PM PT
TV: CBS Sports Network
Stream: FuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why New Mexico State Will Cover The Spread
For New Mexico State it all starts with Diego Pavia. He comes into the game completing 199 of 326 passes for 2,718 yards and 23 touchdowns. Pavia has eight interceptions this year, but two of them came last time out. He struggled some in that game, with just 265 yards, a touchdown, and two interceptions. Last time against Liberty, he also threw two interceptions, but just one touchdown and 150 yards. Meanwhile, Pavia has been great on the ground this year. He has 927 yards rushing and five touchdowns. He has not scored on the ground in his last four and has just 64 yards with a fumble against Liberty last time.
Pavia is the leader on the ground this year for New Mexico State. The main running back is Star Thomas. He comes into the game with 602 yards on the year, with four scores. He has forced 32 missed tackles, while also running for 329 yards after contact. Meanwhile, Monte Watkins comes in with 549 yards this year and two scores on the ground for the Aggies.
In the receiving game, the leader is Jonathan Brady. He comes in with 33 receptions on the year for 518 yards and three scores. The leading touchdown man is Trent Hudson. Hudson has just 28 receptions this year, but has 459 yards and has scored eight times this year. Over 75 percent of his receptions this year have either gone for a touchdown or a first down this year.
On defense, New Mexico State ranks 48th in total defense. Still, they are 20th in the nation on scoring defense. New Mexico State is 31st against the run this year while sitting 77th against the pass. On the pass rush, New Mexico State has 31 sacks this year, led by Izaiah Reed, who has five of them with 21 total pressures this year. Buddha Peleti comes in with four, with 23 pressures. In coverage this year, New Mexico State is not producing a lot of turnovers. They have just six interceptions with 14 touchdowns allowed. Dylan Early is the leader with two interceptions this year, but he has also allowed two touchdowns.
Why Liberty Will Cover The Spread
Meanwhile, Liberty is led by Kaidon Salter. He has completed 142 of 242 passes this year for 2,427 yards with 29 touchdowns. Last time out, he completed just four passes in the game though, for 18 yards and a touchdown. Salter has just five interceptions this year and has not thrown more than one in a game this year. Further, he has been great on the ground. He has run for 923 yards on the ground this year, with 11 touchdowns. Last time against New Mexico, he ran in two scores on the ground. Salter is on the verge of breaking or tying many Liberty records on offense, most of them held by now-NFL quarterback Malik Willis.
Unlike Diago Pavia, Salter is not the leading rusher on this team. That man is Quinton Cooley. He has run for 1,254 yards this year and scored 13 times on the ground this year. Cooley has been amazing after contact this year, with 633 yards after contact on the season. Last time against New Mexico State, he ran for 106 yards in the game but did not score.
Through the air, Liberty relies on CJ Daniels. He has 831 yards this year receiving, with 40 receptions. He has nine touchdowns this year, with 20.8 yards per reception. Also producing is Treon Sibley. Sibley has just 19 receptions this year but has 429 yards this year with four scores. Still, he is questionable for this game. He did practice this week though, and could be back for this game.
On defense, Liberty ranks 38th in total defense, while sitting 29th in scoring defense. Liberty is 17th in the nation against the run while being 87th against the pass. The pass rush has not been amazing this year, with just 28 sacks on the year. That is led by Kendy Charles, who has four of them on 16 pressures. In the coverage game, Brylan Green has been great. He comes into the game with five interceptions and six pass breakups. Further, Kobe Singleton has four interceptions and eight pass breakups this year.
Final New Mexico State-Liberty Prediction & Pick
Liberty is one of the best-rushing teams in the nation, still, New Mexico State is solid against the run. Kaidon Salter will run well on the ground this year, and taking him on a prop for over-rushing yards would be wise here. New Mexico has been keeping games close and covering spreads as of late. In the last ten games, they have covered the spread in all ten of them. Still, Liberty has been dominant this year. They are sixth in the nation in points per game, and sixth in the nation in forced turnovers. New Mexico State ranks 121st in that category. That will be the difference in this one.
Final New Mexico State-Liberty Prediction & Pick: Liberty -10.5 (-110)
