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It is mid-week Conference USA action as New Mexico State faces UTEP. It is time to continue our College Football odds series with a New Mexico State-UTEP prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.
New Mexico State enters the game at 4-3 on the season. They opened the season with a loss to UMASS 41-30. They were down just 13-10 going into the fourth quarter. A back-and-forth fourth quarter ensured, that New Mexico State would fall in. The next week they took out Western Illinois but would fall in their Conference USA opener to Liberty. The Aggies would take out rival New Mexico before falling to Hawaii. Then, it was back. to back conference games, and back-to-back wins are home. Still, they only have one win on the road, and that was instate.
UTEP enters the game at 2-5 on the year. They opened the season with a Conference USA loss to UTEP but would rebound with a win over Incarnate Word. Still, they did not have a win in FBS play, and it would take time to get one. They would lose back-to-back games to Northwestern and Arizona on the road before coming home to face UNLV. In that game, they would fall 45-28 before returning to conference play. That was a game against Louisiana Tech in which the offense never got going. After Beind won 17-7 at the half, they would manage just a field goal in the third quarter and would fall 24-10. Last time out, they got their first FBS and conference win as they took out FIU 27-14.
Here are the college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: New Mexico State-UTEP Odds
New Mexico State: -3 (-115)
UTEP: +3 (-105)
Over: 48.5 (-110)
Under: 48.5 (-110)
How to Watch New Mexico State vs. UTEP Week 8
Time: 9:00 PM ET/ 6:00 PM PT
TV: ESPN2
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why New Mexico State Will Cover The Spread
Diego Pavia is the quarterback for this New Mexico State offense. Pavia can make big plays, but at the same time can turn the ball. This year Pavia has completed 102 of 164 passes, good for a 62.2 completion percentage. His adjusted percentage this year when taking out drops is sitting at 74.1 percent. Pavia has made 11 big-time throws this season. Still, Pavia has five interceptions this year with nine turnover-worthy passes. Pavia has been sacked 12 times this year but has scrambled away well. He has scrambled away 23 times this year for positive yards.
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Pavia has been great rushing this year. He has 171 yards in scramble yards this year while having 523 yards this year on the ground. Pavia has scored twice on the ground but does have four fumbles. Still, he has 18 forced missed tackles this year. He had six of them last time out with 129 yards rushing while having eight in a 102-yard effort against Hawaii.
New Mexico State has a strong running game with Monte Watkins and Star Thomas as well. Watkins has 306 yards this year on just 25 carries. He is the big play threat in the run game, while Thomas grinds out yards. Thomas has 270 yards this year on 59 attempts, with 166 after contact. Together, they have scored six times this year.
Still, New Mexico State does not have the best defense. They allow 23.1 points per game this year. Keyshaun Elliott leads the team with 17 tackles in the run game, with ten stops for offensive failures. He does underscore the issue with the defense though, as he has missed eight tackles this year as well. New Mexico State also needs to get to the quarterback more. They have just 15 sacks this year, while Izaiah Reed leads the team with just three of them. New Mexico State also needs to force more turnovers. They have just two interceptions this year but have dropped four of them this season.
Why UTEP Will Cover The Spread
Gavis Hardison is the starting quarterback for this team, and he has not been great this year. He has completed just 73 of 130 passes this year for 947 yards and five touchdowns. Meanwhile, he has seven interceptions and six other turnover-worthy passes. Still, he is questionable in this game, which could lead to Cade McConnell starting at quarterback. In his time, he has completed just 15 of 28 passes for 310 yards and two touchdowns. He was solid in his first career start last week going 11 for 17 for 262 yards and two touchdowns.
UTEP does have a solid running game with the combination of Torrance Burgess JR and Deion Hankins. Burgess has run for 457 yards this year on 87 attempts. He is getting almost 2.5 yards downfield before first contact this season. Meanwhile, he has also scored twice. Hankins has scored twice as well, with 443 yards rushing. Between them, they have forced 43 missed tackles this year.
Still, UTEP does not have a major issue in the run game. They have missed 46 tackles this year in the run game, with Tyrice Knight having five of them. He has been the best run-stopper this year, with 34 stops for offensive failures. UTEP is allowing 177.3 yards per game on the ground this year. Tyrice Knight is also one of the leaders in the pass rush this year. He has four sacks this season, which is tied for second on the team. Maurice Westmoreland leads the team with five sacks this season. UTEP has also struggled in coverage this year. They have given up seven touchdowns through the air while allowing 1,417 yards passing this year. They have allowed nearly two-thirds of the passes to be completed this year while breaking up just nine passes this year.
Final New Mexico State-UTEP Prediction & Pick
New Mexico State does not have a great defense this year, but that will not matter much in this one. The UTEP offense is scoring up 18 points per game and have a freshman quarterback under center most likely. New Mexico State is amazing on the ground, while UTEP is struggling to stop the run. They are going to struggle with Diego Pavia and Star Thomas in this game. Those two will run wild over this porous defense, and New Mexico State will cover with ease.
Final New Mexico State-UTEP Prediction & Pick: New Mexico State -3 (-115)
