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For Week 14, we’re taking a look at some individual player props for this weekend’s slate of NFL games. Regardless of the outcome of each game, we are diving into player performance this week. Let’s take a look at some players with the potential to have a big game this weekend. Stay tuned to our NFL odds series with more on all things betting in the NFL!
All NFL odds courtesy of FanDuel.
Eagles-Giants
Saquon Barkley (-125) and Miles Sanders (-105) anytime touchdown scorer
Both of these teams are going to rely heavily on their ground game to win this football game. The Eagles are a run-heavy team and have made smashmouth football their identity. The Giants, meanwhile, do not have an elite quarterback in Daniel Jones to counter. Because of this, they will rely heavily on their running game to put the ball in the endzone.
This is particularly true in the RedZone. Jones can move the ball okay between the 20s. Not great, but adequate. However, in the red zone, there is less territory to work with and windows tighten. This is where average quarterbacks can get themselves into trouble, and why when the Giants get in the RedZone they will rely heavily on Barkley and their run game to punch it in for six points.
Miles Sanders has provided consistent production for the Eagles' run game, and I expect him to find the endzone at least once this weekend. Both teams will rely heavily on their ground game, and Barkley and Sanders will both find the endzone at least once in what promises to be a tough, physical matchup on Sunday afternoon.
Steelers-Ravens
Kenny Pickett 200+ passing yards (-190)
I strongly considered taking Pickett’s touchdown prop this weekend, but I just didn't love the options. Over 1.5 touchdowns at plus odds were enticing, but I just don't see enough value in that given what Pickett has shown so far this season. It's absolutely possible he could throw for two touchdowns, and I think he will throw for at least one, but I don't see enough value in the over and I see too much juice on the under. I'd be willing to eat juice for over 0.5 touchdowns, but given the options, I felt it was best to pass on this prop. I do like Pickett's alternate passing yards prop with 200+ yards. He has been playing significantly better as of late, showing improvement on a game-to-game basis. He has been able to improve his yardage, cut down on his interceptions, and even found the endzone a few times.
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Pickett is also often on track for way more than 200 yards in the first half of most games, but Mac Canada often comes out with an entirely different game plan in the second half. I think the team is working towards correcting that mistake, oh, and I think Pickett will easily have more than 200 yards passing this week.
Najee Harris anytime touchdown scorer (+110)
The Steelers' young offense does very well moving the ball between the 20s, and they have become much more balanced in recent weeks. When they get into the RedZone is where they often find themselves in trouble, as the tighter windows make it much harder for a young quarterback to make throws. When the Steelers find themselves in the RedZone this week, expect them to rely heavily on Najee Harris and their ground attack to get the ball into the endzone.
Chiefs-Broncos
Mahomes passing yards spread -51.5 (-115)
These two offenses are on different planets in terms of explosiveness, talent level, and overall offensive ability. Not only is Patrick Mahomes significantly better than the 2022 version of Russell Wilson, but he also has significantly better playmakers to throw the ball to, and he has an innovative coaching staff willing to think outside the box and draw up unique plays. Mahomes has an innate ability to extend the play and turn the game into backyard football, and his receivers know how to get open during these makeshift plays.
Expect tight end Travis Kelce to have a huge day, and for several other Chiefs playmakers to step up as well, including JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Mahomes can throw for 300+ yards in this matchup, and I think Wilson will end the day with around 200-220 passing yards. If Mahomes can get to 260, I really like this play. If he can get to 290, I love it.
