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The Buffalo Bills will attempt to gain revenge on the team that eliminated them last season as they face off with the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium. It's the best matchup of the year, and time to check out our NFL odds series with a Bills-Chiefs prediction and pick.
The Bills destroyed the Pittsburgh Steelers 38-3 last weekend. Josh Allen completed 20 of his 31 passes for 424 yards, four touchdowns, and an interception. Additionally, he also ran five times for 42 yards. Devin Singletary rushed six times for 42 yards. However, it was the two top receivers that blew the house down. Gabe Davis caught three passes for 171 yards and two touchdowns, while Stefon Diggs caught eight passes for 102 yards and a touchdown. Likewise, they played stout defense, with Von Miller and Tyrel Dodson each recording a sack.
The Chiefs edged the Las Vegas Raiders 30-29 on Monday Night Football. Patrick Mahomes completed 29 of his 43 passes for 292 yards, four touchdowns, and no picks. Also, Jerrick McKinnon rushed eight times for 53 yards on a 6.6 yards-per-game clip. Clyde Edwards-Helaire struggled immensely, rushing nine times for 15 yards and a pathetic 1.7 yards-per-game rate. Travis Kelce caught seven passes for 25 yards and an astonishing four touchdowns. Additionally, Marquez Valdes-Scantling caught six passes for 90 yards, while Mercole Hardman added four catches for 73 yards.
The Bills took the regular season battle last season but once more fell to the Chiefs in the playoffs. Allen completed 27 of his 37 passes for 329 yards, four touchdowns, and no interceptions while rushing 11 times for 68 yards. Subsequently, it was better than his previous playoff performance, where he completed 28 of his 48 passes for 287 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions. It still was not enough to win. Mahomes completed 33 of his 44 passes for 378 yards and three passing touchdowns while rushing seven times for 69 yards in last year's playoff match. It was similar to his previous game, where he completed 29 of his 38 passes for 325 yards and three passing touchdowns.
Here are the Bills-Chiefs NFL odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NFL Odds: Bills-Chiefs Odds
Buffalo Bills: -2.5 (-118)
Kansas City Chiefs: +2.5 (-104)
Over: 53.5 (-115)
Under: 53.5 (-105)
Why The Bills Could Cover The Spread
The Bills have the pieces to beat the Chiefs. Now, it is a matter of execution. Allen has a 107.4 quarterback rating with 1651 yards, 14 touchdowns, and four interceptions. Likewise, he has rushed 35 times for 225 yards and two touchdowns. Singletary has rushed 40 times for 171 yards on a 4.3 yards-per-game rate. Additionally, he has caught 18 passes for 145 yards and a touchdown.
Diggs has 39 receptions for 508 yards and five touchdowns. However, he struggled in last year's playoff loss to the Chiefs, managing three catches for seven yards.
Davis became a star in last year's playoff loss, catching eight passes for 201 yards and four touchdowns. He enters this weekend's contest, having caught 11 passes for 309 yards and three touchdowns.
Miller has eight solo tackles and four sacks coming into this showdown. Also, Matt Milano has 23 tackles, while Tremaine Edmonds has 17 tackles and a sack.
The Bills will cover the spread if they can build an early advantage and put the Chiefs on their heels. Likewise, they must stop Mahomes from tossing the ball to Kelce repeatedly.
Why The Chiefs Could Cover The Spread
Mahomes is quietly having another great season. He has a quarterback rating of 110.5, with 1398 yards, 15 touchdowns, and two interceptions. Now, he hopes to continue that run against a team he is familiar with. Edwards-Helaire has rushed 50 times for 223 yards and two touchdowns. Also, he has caught 16 passes for 137 yards and three touchdowns. Isiah Pacheco has rushed 29 times for 140 yards and a touchdown. Ultimately, the running game has produced mixed results.
Kelce has 33 catches for 347 yards and seven touchdowns. Moreover, he has hurt the Bills in both playoff matches. Kelce caught eight passes for 96 yards in last year's contest while catching 13 passes for 118 yards and two touchdowns in the 2021 AFC Championship. Valdes-Scantling has caught 19 passes for 258 yards but has yet to score. Now, he hopes to secure his first touchdown.
L'Jarious Snead performs well defensively, recording 32 solo tackles and three sacks. However, he will have a difficult time attempting to stop this Bills offense.
The Chiefs will cover the spread if they can run the ball efficiently and keep Allen off the field. Likewise, Mahomes has to perform at the elite level that has allowed him to eliminate the Bills for two seasons straight.
Final Bills-Chiefs Prediction & Pick
The Bills have had this game circled on their calendar. Ultimately, they will come out motivated and ready to beat the Chiefs. The game could produce significant implications down the line, and the Bills must do all they can to win this game.
Final Bills-Chiefs Prediction & Pick: Buffalo Bills: -2.5 (-118)
