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The Buffalo Bills and the Kansas City Chiefs will face off in a rematch of the 2020 AFC Championship game. It's time to continue our NFL odds series and make a Bills-Chiefs prediction and pick.
This is the perfect game for either team to prove that they belong in the ring of Super Bowl contenders. If Buffalo comes into Arrowhead Stadium and upsets Kansas City, they'll immediately become the team to beat in the AFC. A win here would also be important for a potential tiebreaker come time for playoff seeding. A Kansas City victory here would make them the favorite to win the AFC West and drastically improve their chances of winning the conference. It would also go a long way in silencing the doubters that have come out of the woodwork because of the Chiefs' mediocre start to the season.
Here's how the bookmakers have set the odds for Sunday's matchup.
NFL Odds: Bills-Chiefs Odds
Buffalo Bills +3 (-120)
Kansas City Chiefs -3 (+100)
Over 57 points (-110)
Under 57 points (-110)
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Why The Bills Could Cover The Spread
Ever since an embarrassing Week 1 defeat to the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Bills have been on a roll. They've rattled off three straight wins by multiple touchdowns each in what has so far been the most dominant run of this season. Quarterback Josh Allen has looked incredible over that stretch, and the stable of wide receivers is one of the best in the league. Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley, Emmanuel Sanders, and Gabriel Davis have all been solid contributors this season, and that should continue against a Chiefs defense that has been mediocre at best against the pass. Kansas City has allowed more than 275 passing yards in three of four contests, once to a Cleveland Browns team that isn't known for their passing game.
The expectations for Kansas City's offense were sky-high entering this season, and quarterback Patrick Mahomes and crew haven't lived up to them. The Chiefs have become prone to committing turnovers, which is enough to kill off a game in tight situations. Buffalo's defense has forced seven turnovers over the last three contests, using a combination of suffocating pressure and solid coverage. Even one turnover is enough to lose the game to a Bills team as offensively talented as this one. Mahomes will pretty much have to play a perfect game to win here, something that seems unlikely against this defense.
Why The Chiefs Could Cover The Spread
Having Mahomes playing quarterback for you is like having a cheat code. His greatness alone is often enough to win games, and he needs to take over this game if Kansas City wants a shot at winning. Mahomes has already put up over 1200 yards and 14 touchdowns on the season, and it seems likely that he adds to his touchdown total by at least two more scores. This Buffalo defense hasn't faced a real test this season, and the Chiefs are more than a test. Through four games, the Bills have been lucky enough to face a Ben Roethlisberger, Jacoby Brissett, Taylor Heinicke, and Davis Mills at quarterback. That's easily the softest schedule for a defense in the entire league. It's very possible that Mahomes is a wake-up call for a defense that is slightly overrated right now.
Another monster advantage that Kansas City has in this game is their home field. Arrowhead Stadium is notoriously difficult to play in, and this is the first primetime game of the season in Kansas City. Every seat will be filled for this premier matchup, making every snap more difficult for the Bills offense. Mahomes is also a slightly better player when he gets to defend his home turf, and playing at home is always beneficial to defenses.
Final Bills-Chiefs Prediction & Pick
This will obviously be a close game, so the clear pick is Buffalo. Kansas City is slightly overrated as they come into this contest and the Bills aren't being given enough credit. Take the points in what is essentially a matchup of teams of equal talent level.
FINAL PICK: Buffalo Bills +3 (-120)
