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The Washington Commanders (1-4) will take on the Chicago Bears (2-3) in this week's Thursday Night Football showdown. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 ET. Below we continue our NFL odds series with a Commanders-Bears prediction and pick.
The Commanders are 1-4 and have lost four consecutive games. After a victory over Jacksonville in week one, Washington has dropped games to Detroit, Philadelphia, Dallas, and Tennessee. Their closest loss during the recent skid was last week's 21-17 loss to the Titans. The Commanders are 1-4 against the spread this season. Their games have gone under in 3 out of 5 weeks.
The Bears are 2-3 but have lost two straight games. Chicago had an impressive win in week one over San Francisco and then pulled out a close victory over Houston in week three. They were beaten handily by the Packers in Week two and then dropped tight matchups to the Giants and Vikings. The Bears are 2-2-1 against the spread this season and three of their five games have gone under.
Here are the Commanders-Bears NFL odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NFL Odds: Commanders-Bears Odds
Washington Commanders: +1 (-114)
Chicago Bears: -1 (-106)
Over: 37.5 (-115)
Under: 37.5 (-105)
Why The Commanders Could Cover The Spread
The Washington Commanders have been abysmal this year and a lot of that lies on Carson Wentz. We know who Wentz is at this point. He's going to throw the football a lot (2nd in pass attempts) and bomb it downfield (2nd in deep passing attempts and 5th in PFF's deep passing grade). Wentz is also 6th in 20+ yard completions and 5th in 40+ yard completions. We also know he's also going to throw picks (2nd in INTs and 5th in INT %) and take sacks (2nd-most sacked QB in the league). While Chicago does bring pressure at the 10th-highest rate in the NFL, Wentz has the potential to put up big plays against a below-average secondary.
Wentz loves to chuck it downfield and he's at his best playing YOLO ball. That's going to have mixed results. In three games this season against vulnerable defenses (TEN, DET, JAX) Wentz has thrown for over 300 yards and completed over 65% of his passes. In their two games against Dallas and Philly, though, he was held to under 215 yards and a sub-60% completion percentage. I'd say the Bears fit more into the category of Tennessee, Detroit, and Jacksonville than Dallas and Philly. Chicago is 29th in deep passing DVOA and just gave up 300 yards and a touchdown to Kirk Cousins.
Carson Wentz's play style makes him hard to predict from week to week but with Chicago's vulnerable secondary and a front seven with the 3rd fewest sacks in the league he could be in store for a vintage Carson Wentz performance. It's also worth noting when making a Commanders-Bears prediction that Carson Wentz is 6-0 on Thursday Night Football and 16-8 in primetime games.
Why The Bears Could Cover The Spread
If you take the names and numbers off the jerseys, the Bears look more like a College Football team than an NFL team. The Bears lead the league in the percentage of plays that are runs at over 60%. That is by far the largest percentage in the NFL (for context last year's rush rate leader, the Eagles, ran the ball under 50% of the time). Chicago runs not just with their two backs, but with quarterback Justin Fields.
Chicago has run the ball 160 times this season, with Justin Fields accounting for 42 of those rushes. He's averaging a hair under 40 yards rushing per game – good for 5th among quarterbacks. This is where the Bears can get an edge. While the Commanders are middle of the pack in rushing defense, that's more a product of other teams wanting to throw against their vulnerable secondary. Since Ron Rivera took over in 2020, Washington has allowed the most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks of any team in the NFL. The Commanders do blitz at the ninth-highest rate in the league and are eighth in pressure rate which could cause Fields problems. However, it could also push Fields out of the pocket and allow him to make even more plays with his legs.
Justin Fields going to have to manage pressure and push the ball downfield for the Bears to win. Based on last week, that may not be such a bad thing. Fields is coming off his best passing game of the season in the loss to Minnesota. The second-year pro threw for over 200 yards for the first time this year and completed a career-high 71.4% of his passes. If he's able to manage the pressure Washington will bring then he'll be throwing at a secondary allowing the sixth-highest yards per attempt. The Commanders have given up the second most passing touchdowns in the league – aiding Fields' case for a big week. The Bears quarterback has looked better every week this season and is a matchup nightmare for this vulnerable Commanders' defense.
Final Commanders-Bears Prediction & Pick
If you're looking to choose a side in this “pick 'em” game, I'd lean toward Chicago. They're 2-0 at Soldier Field and have looked competent in recent weeks. I'm really enticed by the total. While the offenses aren't anything to write home about, neither defense is going to be able to stop what the opposition is best at.
Final Commanders-Bears Prediction & Pick: Over 37.5 (-115)
Be sure to take advantage of FanDuel's TNF No Sweat Same Game Parlay.
Prop of the Game: Carson Wentz Over 32.5 Pass Attempts (-114)
