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The Houston Texans travel east to take on the surging Buffalo Bills on Sunday. It’s time to continue our NFL odds series and make a Texans-Bills week 4 prediction and pick.
With quarterback Tyrod Taylor healthy, this Texans team played very well in week one in the win over the Jaguars. Since Taylor's injury, the team hasn't played well over the last two weeks. Davis Mills took over under center but has yet to perform well enough to earn the permanent starting role. The team is made up of many veterans on offense who still prove to contribute on Sundays. Mark Ingram II, David Johnson, Brandon Cooks, and Rex Burkhead are all players who have contributed to other teams in the past. Their experience can be vital if Mills and the rest of the offense can find their groove.
The Buffalo Bills lost a close game to the Pittsburgh Steelers in week one. Since that loss, they have surged into first place of the AFC East and look to remain there for the rest of the season. Josh Allen will play himself into an MVP conversation at some point this year if he hasn't already. The Bills' defense continues to create turnovers and should continue to frustrate offenses all season long.
Here’s how the bookmakers have set the Texans-Bills odds for Sunday’s matchup.
NFL Odds: Texans-Bills Odds
Houston Texans +17 (-107)
Buffalo Bills -17 (-113)
Over 47 points (-110)
Under 47 points (-110)
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Why The Texans Could Cover
This will be a tough game for the Texans to cover. If they were to cover, this is how it will be done. Davis Mills will need to play the game of his life. The offense will need to keep things slow and control the run game. If they can keep Allen off the field and control the time of possession, then that will help their chances tremendously. The problem is that the Bills' defense is dominant and can ruin any game plan designed. Bills' safety Jordan Poyer will be out with an injury, which could benefit the passing game. The veteran players mentioned earlier will need to step up and help Mills out as much as possible in his second career start. The Bills are likely to score a ton of points, so it will take an all-out effort from the offense to keep it close.
Why The Bills Could Cover
This matchup could potentially be the easiest on the Bills' schedule this year. This is a well-put-together roster that will likely be contending for a Super Bowl this year. If Allen continues to play like a star, then there is no stopping their offense. Their defense creates turnovers that allow the Bills to score a ton of points regardless of the opponent. They just scored 43 against a good Washington Football Team defense last week and shut out the Miami Dolphins two weeks ago, 35-0. There shouldn't be a reason why they don't score at least 30 points this Sunday.
Final Texans-Bills Prediction & Pick
I expect the Bills to cover and win this game pretty easily. The Texans don't have the pieces or the momentum to keep up with the Bills, especially with the way the Bills are playing. Allen should continue to make plays and either score through the air or with his running ability. The over/under is tricky because the Texans' offense might not show up at all. Staying away from that might be the safest option in this matchup.
Final Pick: Bills -17
