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This weekend, NFL fans will get to find out who the Denver Broncos really are as they travel to Buffalo for a tough road matchup with the Bills. Elsewhere across the league, the Steelers host the Packers with their playoff hopes on the line, the Giants try to maintain their dignity against the Cowboys, the 49ers defense travels to Jacksonville to take on Trevor Lawrence, and C.J. Stroud looks to prove himself against one of the best teams in the league. Keep reading for my best NFL picks!
All NFL odds courtesy of FanDuel.
NFL Odds: Broncos at Bills
Broncos: +7 (-105)
Bills: -7 (-105)
The Bills will host a Broncos team that has struggled this season, even with Russell Wilson playing better than he did last season.
It has been a tale of two seasons so far for the Broncos, who lost five of their first six games and were the laughingstock of the league and social media thanks to their embarrassing loss to the Dolphins in which they allowed 70 points to be scored against them.
Since then, they have turned things around, including defeating the Kansas City Chiefs at home and limiting Patrick Mahomes and company to just nine points.
Their red zone defense has been outstanding in recent weeks, and that has been a big part of their ability to limit opposing offenses and keep the score low, keeping their offense within striking distance and allowing them an opportunity to win the game.
The biggest weakness for the Bills is their run defense, and Sean Payton will need a big night from Javonte Williams if the Broncos want to have a realistic chance of winning this game.
The run game is the great equalizer in football because the best defense is quality offense. Josh Allen can’t put up points from the sideline. If the Broncos can sustain drives on offense, taking their time and marching the ball down the field, eating up clock, and putting points on the board in the process, they will force the Bills offense to stay on the sideline where they can’t do any damage.
This will be the key to the game for Denver.
I’m not confident that the Broncos will win this game, but I do think that they have a chance. That being said, 7 points is a fairly large spread in professional football, and I think that Denver will do enough to keep this game close.
NFL Picks: Broncos +7 (-105)
NFL Odds: Giants at Cowboys
Giants: +17.5 (-115)
Cowboys: -17.5 (-105)
The Cowboys can win this game by more than 20 points. It's not out of the realm of possibility. But, I'm playing the odds here.
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We're talking about a spread of more than two touchdowns. In the National Football League. This is a college football spread, not a professional football spread. Granted, the Giants have looked like a college team at times, but they should still be able to keep the score within two touchdowns.
The Giants essentially have a nonexistent passing game. That being said, Saquon Barkley is a quality running back, and the team will be relying on him to carry the bulk of the work offensively with their passing game in shambles.
Saquon Barkley’s rushing total is set at 61.5 yards. The question becomes will the Giants stay in the game long enough for him to get enough carries to reach that total? I think the answer is yes, as they will need to do everything in their power to keep the Dallas offense on the sidelines, which means a heavy dose of the running game is required when viable. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Barkley get the bulk of the workload for at least the first quarter and into the second, as he will likely be the team’s only source of consistent offensive production.
NFL Picks: Saquon Barkley over 61.5 rushing yards (-114)
NFL Odds: Green Bay Packers at Pittsburgh Steelers
Packers: +3 (+100)
Steelers: -3 (-122)
The Steelers should win this game because of the combination of their elite defense and home-field advantage. Jordan Love is a young, relatively inexperienced quarterback, and if Pittsburgh’s vaunted pass rush is able to get home and wreak havoc, they should be able to force him into key mistakes. Offensively, the Steelers just need to sustain their drives and make sure not to turn the ball over.
If they are able to maintain a small lead, or at least stay within striking distance, the Steelers should be able to win this game. The spread does concern me slightly, but I don’t see enough value in the moneyline to just back the Steelers to win outright. I’m not going to place a bet yet, but I’m going to continue to monitor these lines into the evening.
The moneyline for the Steelers is currently -180. If the line improves and I can get anything -160 or better, I’ll play the Steelers moneyline with no hesitation. Otherwise, if the line stays where it is, I’ll take the Steelers and give up the points. I don’t have a problem with that play, but I think the smartest thing to do from my perspective is to wait it out a little longer and see if I can get the moneyline for a slightly better price.
Home-field advantage is typically considered to be worth roughly three points. Therefore, this line is essentially saying that these teams are equal on a neutral field. I disagree with that assessment and think the Steelers would be slightly better due to their defense. That gives me the confidence to play the spread if necessary. Therefore, if I had to place my bet right now, I would give up the points and back the Steelers at home.
NFL Picks: Steelers -3 (-122)
