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The New England Patriots will face the Buffalo Bills in the Wild Card round. It's time to continue our NFL odds series and make a Patriots-Bills prediction and pick.
No one could ask for a better first-round matchup than this one. These division rivals have already played each other twice this season, making this matchup that much more dramatic. Each team has won one meeting, and now the tiebreaker is a playoff matchup in Buffalo, where the Patriots pulled off an upset win earlier in the year.
For more insight on the Patriots-Bills matchup in the Wild Card round of the 2022 NFL Playoffs, listen below:
There's so much at stake here, and emotions will be running high because of the familiarity between these squads. No one can ask for a better playoff football game, so let's cut to the chase and get right into the pick.
Here are the NFL odds for the Patriots-Bills game, courtesy of FanDuel.
NFL Odds: Patriots-Bills Odds
New England Patriots: +4 (-106)
Buffalo Bills: -4 (-114)
Over: 44 (-110)
Under: 44 (-110)
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Why The Patriots Could Cover The Spread
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The last two times these teams played, New England proved that they could run the ball on Buffalo. Running back Damien Harris terrorized the Bills in both meetings, combining for 214 yards and four touchdowns in those two contests. The Patriots pretty much ran the ball at will against this Bills defense, and there's no reason for that formula to change in a game that should feature extremely cold and windy conditions.
The weather conditions will certainly play a factor in this game, just like they did the first time these teams met. The forecast is predicting the temperature to be below zero with winds that reach fifteen miles per hour. When these teams played the first time, the Bills looked completely incapable of running their offense in similar conditions. The elements give the Patriots a huge advantage here, particularly on the defensive side of the ball.
Why The Bills Could Cover The Spread
Despite the weather, this Buffalo offense should be able to put together a decent performance. The last time they faced the Patriots, quarterback Josh Allen led his team to a 33-point outing by tossing for 314 yards and three touchdowns. Another performance like that could be in store here, as New England's defense has been in a downward spiral for weeks now. The Patriots just gave up a whopping 33 points to the Miami Dolphins, and previously allowed 27 points to the Indianapolis Colts. Buffalo shouldn't have too much trouble scoring in this one unless the weather is absolutely abysmal.
There's reason to believe the Bills can turn their run defense around in this game. They should be more prepared for New England's one-dimensional approach after the Patriots took that route in a game that should be somewhat similar to this one. Buffalo was also a solid run defense throughout the regular season, only allowing 109 rushing yards per game and 4.2 yards per carry. Expect the Bills to fare much better against the run game in this one.
Final Patriots-Bills Prediction & Pick
Four points is just a little too much for Buffalo. New England has the edge in this matchup because of the weather, and that will show. The Bills may come out on top, but the Patriots shouldn't lose by more than a field goal.
Final Patriots-Bills Prediction & Pick: New England Patriots: +4 (-106)
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