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The Toronto Maple Leafs will try to win their first playoff series since 2004 as they face the Tampa Bay Lightning in Game 6. It's time to continue our NHL odds series with a Maple Leafs-Lightning Game 6 prediction and pick.
The Maple Leafs rallied to beat the Lighting 4-3 in Game 5 and now hold a 3-2 series lead. The Lightning struck first when Steven Stamkos scored off a sweet pass from Nikita Kucherov in the first. Then, Victor Hedman added to the pile with a power-play goal to make it 2-0 Lightning. Things started turning for the Leafs in the second period when John Tavares scored a power-play goal off a redirect from William Nylander to cut the deficit to 2-1. The Lightning held onto a 2-1 lead entering the third.
Morgan Reilly then tied it up on a one-timer off a beautiful pass from Tavares. Later, Nylander found some open space and fired a laser past Tampa goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy to give the Leafs a 3-2 lead. However, the Bolts answered back with an equalizer from Ryan McDonagh to make it 3-3. The game had the makings of a nail-biter when the Leafs struck at the six-minute mark. Auston Matthews capitalized off a juice rebound on a shot from Mitch Marner to put it past Vasilevskiy and give the Leafs the 4-3 lead. Toronto held on over the final minutes to secure the win.
Vasilevskiy was off all night, as he managed only 21 saves on 25 shots. Kucherov had a goal and two assists, while Stamkos and Hedman scored a goal apiece. Meanwhile, Campbell performed admirably for Toronto, making 32 saves on 35 shots. Nylander scored a goal and two assists, while Tavares added a goal with an assist. The Leafs will try and eliminate the defending Stanley Cup champions while also securing their first series win since 2004.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Maple Leafs-Lightning NHL Playoffs odds:
NHL Playoffs Odds: Maple Leafs-Lightning Odds
Maple Leafs: +1.5 (-220)
Lightning: -1.5 (+180)
Over: 6.5 (-115)
Under: 6.5 (-105)
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Why The Maple Leafs Could Cover The Spread
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Toronto has performed excellently throughout the series. The offense has lit the lamp multiple times, averaging four games per game. Matthews, Marner, Nylander, and Tavares are performing at a stupendous level. Now, the four must power the Toronto offense and take them into the second round.
The power-play unit has gone 4 for 24 in the series. While Toronto has converted occasionally, the number is significantly low for the number of chances they have had. Likewise, goaltending has been inconsistent. Campbell pitched a shutout in Game 1 and performed well in games 3 and 5. However, he struggled in Games 2 and 4. He allowed five goals on 16 shots in Game 4. Which Campbell will Toronto get for Game 6? Another pressing issue is the inability to block shots. The defense managed only seven blocked shots in Game 5. Also, they managed only 25 shots against Vasilevskiy.
The Leafs will cover the spread if their four all-stars can perform well, and get shots past Vasilevskiy. Additionally, the Leafs need to create more opportunities in the Tampa end to secure the victory. Campbell and the defense will need to stand out to prevent this series from going back to Toronto all tied up.
Why The Lightning Could Cover The Spread
The two-time defending Stanley Cup champions could go down tonight. However, Tampa Bay has faced this situation once during their two championship runs, and it was a Game 7 against the New York Islanders in the 2021 semifinals. Additionally, the Lightning has not lost back-to-back playoff games since 2019. The one key to salvaging the series is Vasilevskiy.
Vasilevskiy has struggled against the Leafs, generating a 3.65 goals-against average with a .880 save percentage. The Leafs have managed to fire shots past the elite netminder, and he has not adjusted. How well Vasilevskiy adjusts in Game 6 will determine if the Stanley Cup champs live to play another day. Likewise, the Lightning have to create more opportunities off the draw. Tampa Bay only won 38 percent of the faceoffs in Game 5 and must improve that figure to have a chance in Game 6.
The Lightning will cover the spread if Kucherov, Stamkos, Hedman, and the rest of the top-notch scorers can fire shots past Campbell and put him on his heels. Also, Tampa Bay will cover if Vasilevskiy plays like his true form and stops Toronto's barrage of pucks. The Lightning must do better in the faceoff circle to give their offense an edge.
Final Maple Leafs-Lightning Game 6 Prediction & Pick
Four of the five games in this series have produced seven or more goals. However, another stat stands out. The Lightning have won both games by two or more goals. Additionally, Tampa Bay was on its way to winning Game 5 with ease before collapsing in the third period. The Bolts will come out of the gate ready to go and not go down without a fight. Expect the Lightning to use the energy of their fans to bolt out of the gate with an attack. The Lightning wins the game by two or more, sending the series back to Canada for a nerve-wracking Game 7.
Final Maple Leafs-Lightning Game 6 Prediction & Pick: Lightning -1.5 (+180)
