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The Toronto Maple Leafs will try and regain the edge as they head into Florida to take on the Tampa Bay Lightning in Game 3. It's time to continue our NHL odds series with a Maple Leafs-Lightning prediction and pick.
The Lightning defeated the Maple Leafs 5-3 in Game 2 to even the series at one game apiece. Tampa Bay struck early when Victor Hedman found a lucky bounce and put it into the net to give the Lighting a 1-0 lead. Later, Andrei Vasilevskiy kept the game tied with a fantastic save on a shot that looked like it was going in. It proved pivotal because Corey Perry later scored on a breakaway off a smooth pass from Hedman to put Tampa up 2-0. However, Toronto answered back as Michael Bunting scored when Auston Matthews created a turnover and found his teammate in open space. Nikita Kucherov answered back with a power-play goal to give the Lightning a 3-1 lead entering the third.
Brandon Hagel delivered on a goal off assists from Kucherov and Nick Paul to make it 4-1 Lightning. Then, Braydon Point converted on a power-play goal to give Tampa a dominating 5-1 lead. The Leafs cut the lead with goals by Mitchell Marner and Alexander Kerfoot. However, the deficit was too much to overcome.
Vasilevskiy finished with 31 saves on 34 shots. Conversely, Jack Cambell struggled for the Leafs, as he stopped 29 shots but let five goals in.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Maple Leafs-Lightning NHL Playoffs odds:
NHL Playoffs Odds: Maple Leafs-Lightning Odds
Maple Leafs: +1.5 (-265)
Lightning: -1.5 (+215)
Over: 6.5 (+100)
Under: 6.5 (-122)
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Why The Maple Leafs Could Cover The Spread
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Toronto has demonstrated its firepower in this series. Matthews has two goals and three assists over the first two games. Additionally, Marner also has two goals and three assists. However, John Tavares and William Nylander have struggled. Neither scored in Game 2 after Tavares managed an assist in Game 1. Nylander has not scored at all in this series. The Leafs have a variety of weapons but need these two to deliver to take the pressure off Matthews and Marner. Also, the Leafs failed on all four power-play opportunities in Game 2. Toronto must rectify that if it wants to take down Tampa Bay.
Toronto needs Campbell to bounce back. After a 24-save shutout in Game 1, he floundered in Game 2. Which Campbell will the Leafs get in Game 3? It remains to be seen, as he has an arduous task of winning at Amalie Arena. The Leafs need him and their defense to clamp down on the Lightning, especially Kucherov, Herdman, and Steven Stamkos. Kucherov scored a goal and had two assists in Game 2. Also, Hedman chipped in with a goal and three assists. Stamkos had an assist to help the effort. The Leafs must contain this three-headed monster to have a chance of winning in Tampa.
The Maple Leafs will cover the spread if they can get some secondary scoring from Tavares and Nylander. Also, they must protect the net and play better defense than they did in Game 2. Those factors could go a long way in determining if the Leafs steal Game 3 and recapture the momentum.
Why The Lightning Could Cover The Spread
Tampa Bay did almost everything right in Game 2. They bounce back after an ugly Game 1 performance to even up the series. Kucherov, Hedman, and Stamkos delivered monumentally. Now, they will try and replicate the performance to take the series lead. The Lightning went 3 for 7 on the power play in Game 2. They did this by pressuring the Toronto penalty kill and capitalizing on chances. It was a big step in the right direction after an ugly Game 1 where they went 0 for 5 on the man advantage.
The Lightning defended well, as they blocked 17 shots. Vasilevskiy performed adequately in the net, making 31 saves on 34 shots. It has not been an easy series for him, as the Toronto attackers have given him fits, averaging four games a game on him. Now, Vasilevskiy is back at home, where he went 20-8-4 during the regular season with a 2.23 goals-against average.
The Lightning will cover the spread if Kucherov, Hedman, and Stamkos deliver superbly again and cash in on power-play chances. Also, Tampa will control this game if they can block shots in front of Vasilevskiy. It would give him a better chance of succeeding and getting hot.
Final Maple Leafs-Lightning Game 3 Prediction & Pick
This is probably the best series in the playoffs to watch. The teams combined for seven or more goals in three of four regular-season games. Additionally, they went off in Game 2 as they scored eight goals total. The line is much friendlier for anyone who picks the over, and it is a fun decision here. Expect the Leafs and Lightning to light up the lamp to create a high-scoring affair in Florida.
Final Maple Leafs-Lightning Game 3 Prediction & Pick: Over: 6.5 (+100)
