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Nebraska looks for their first win of the season as they face Northern Illinois. It is time to continue our College Football odds series with a Northern Illinois-Nebraska prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.
Northern Illinois enters the game at 1-1 on the season. They started the season with an overtime win over Boston College. In the game, they blew a 14-point fourth-quarter lead, but after giving up a field goal in overtime, they would score the touchdown to win the game. After pulling the upset, they would be the ones upset the next week. The Huskies were held without points until last in the third quarter when they kicked a field goal. They would score a touchdown and two-point conversion less than a minute into the fourth quarter to make it 14-11, but could not score again and fell by three to Southern Illinois.
Meanwhile, Nebraska enters the game at 0-2. It was a tight game with Minnesota. Minnesota got up in the first half with a 34-yard field goal by Dragan Kesich. Those were the only points of the half though. Nebraska scored in the third quarter to take the lead and then made it a full touchdown lead in the fourth quarter. Athan Kaliakmanis would conduct a touchdown drive with 2:32 left in the game to tie it up. Then, as time expired, Kesich hit his second field goal to send Nebraska to the loss. The next week it was a beatdown at the hands of Colorado. Nebraska turned over the ball four times, and managed just 119 yards passing, losing 36-14 to Colorado.
Here are the college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Northern Illinois-Nebraska Odds
Northern Illinois: +12.5 (-106)
Nebraska: -12.5 (-114)
Over: 42.5 (-108)
Under: 42.5 (-112)
How to Watch Northern Illinois vs. Nebraska
TV: FS1
Stream: Fox Sports App
Time: 7:00 PM ET/ 4:00 PM PT
*Watch college football LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why Northern Illinois Will Cover The Spread
Article Continues Below
For Northern Illinois to cover it starts with Rocky Lombardi. While they lost last week, he had some positives and some negatives. Lombardi went 23-38 passing for 297 yards and a touchdown. He had four big-time throws according to PFF and pushed the ball downfield well. Still, he had three of his on-target passes dropped. He also threw three interceptions while throwing another three turnover-worthy passes. One of the major issues was pressure. He was pressured 12 times in the game leading to five sacks and two scrambles for positive yardage.
Meanwhile, Lombardi needs help from his receivers. Kacper Rutiewicz was solid. He took in six of his nine targets for 139 yards and a score. He was targeted deep and often, with an average depth of target sitting at 16.1 yards. Still, Jalen Johnson and Trayvon Rudolph, the starting wide receivers, caught just five of 11 targets. They had a combined 38 yards in the game and only two yards after the catch.
Northern Illinois will also need to control the ball and the ground game. Antonio Brown was the leader on the ground for the Huskies. He ran 22 times for 61 yards, which averages just 2.8 yards per carry. He also did not get much help from the line. His average depth of first contact was less than two yards beyond the line of scrimmage.
On defense, pressuring the quarterback will be the key. In the game with Southern Illinois, they had 16 pressures with seven sacks. Devonte O'Malley was great. He came away with three pressures and two sacks in the game. Meanwhile, George Gumbs also had three pressures and a sack and included three stops for offensive failure in the run game.
Why Nebraska Will Cover The Spread
For Nebraska to cover, it is going to start with quarterback play. Jeff Sims has been bad this year. He is just 20-34 passing for 220 yards. Sims has thrown a touchdown but also thrown four interceptions with four more turnover-worthy passes. One of the major issues has been pressure. Sims has been pressured 17 times on 42 dropbacks this year, leading to five sacks, and a multitude of poor passes. Sims also fumbled three times in the game with Colorado. There is a chance he does not play in this game due to injury though. If Sims cannot go it will most likely be Heinrich Haarberg. He came in against Colorado and went 2-6 for 12 yards and a touchdown in the game.
To protect the quarterback Nebraska will need a solid running game. That starts with Gabe Ervin Jr. Last time out he went for 77 yards on 16 carries. Most of that was him doing it on his own. Ervin caused six missed tackles and had 56 yards after first contact. He was not getting good blocking in the game, with an average point of first contact less than two yards beyond the line of scrimmage.
Another big place to make an impact is the defense. First, they need to keep putting pressure on the quarterback. Last time out they got 29 quarterback pressures while also having seven sacks. Cameron Lenhardt led the way. He has five pressures in the game with two sacks. Still, there is work to be done. First, Nebraska has to tackle better. They missed 14 tackles in the game with Colorado. Second, they have to cover better. They allowed a 74.4 percent reception percentage and 396 yards, plus 146 after the catch. Nebraska had just two pass breakups in the game, while help over the top was rough. Free Safety DeShon Singleton was targeted dive times, allowing four receptions, 52 yards, and two touchdowns.
Final Northern Illinois-Nebraska Prediction & Pick
While the Cornhuskers have struggled heavily this year, they play a bad opponent. They got lucky and beat a bad Boston College team. That same Boston College team nearly lost to Holy Cross. They also lost to Southern Illinois and FCS schools. Nebraska has a lot of talent, and this game is a good chance for it to shine. If Sims is out, it is also a chance for Haarberg, or even Chubba Purdy, to take control of the offense and show that they should be QB1. Take Nebraska to cover in this game.
Final Northern Illinois-Nebraska Prediction & Pick: Nebraksa -12.5 (-114)
