Northern Illinois comes off a disappointing 2022 and looks to rebound this year. It is now time to continue our college football odds series with a Northern Illinois football win total prediction and pick.

Last year was the worst, non-Covid impacted year, for Northern Illinois since 2007. That was the last year of the Joe Novak tenure as Jerry Kill took over the team. Between him, Dave Doeren, and Rod Carey, the Huskies proceeded to go to eight straight bowl games, and bowl games in ten of 11 years. Since then, Northern Illinois has made just one bowl game in the last four years.

Last year Northern Illinois opened the season with a win over Eastern Illinois but then lost the next five straight. After a nice rebound at Eastern Michigan, they would lose four of five games down the stretch to end the season with just three wins. The offense returns some major players. They bring back Nolan Potter and Logan Zschernitz on the offensive line who will give plenty of running room for Antario Brown. The offense also will see the return of Trayvon Rudolph. Rudolph missed all of last year with a knee injury, but he is their biggest offensive weapon, plus an amazing kick returner.

The defense will be led by two stud defensive tackles in the middle, which will make it hard to run on them. In the secondary CJ Brown is a ball hawk and can hit hard. He can support both the run and passing game. The defense will keep this team in plenty of games, and a few big plays can turn the tide for this team.

Here are the College Football Odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

College Football Odds: Northern Illinois Over/Under Win Total Odds

Over 5.5 wins: -128

Under 5.5 wins: +104

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Why Northern Illinois Can Win 5.5 Games 

The non-conference schedule could be huge for the Huskies. There are multiple games in the non-conference schedule that can be won for Northern Illinois, but it will take some upsets. First is Boston College. Boston College was ranked 88th in the nation against the run last year. Antonio Brown will be primed for his breakout performance in this game. He was a backup to Harrison Waylee last year but averaged 6.3 yards per carry while scoring seven touchdowns last year. If he breaks out in this game, the Huskies can win.

Week two will provide another win over Southern Illinois before a trip to Nebraska. Nebraska has too much at wide receiver and quarterback for the Huskies to pull this upset. Still, they can the next week against Tulsa. If the Huskies’ two stud defensive tackles can get pressure up the middle, they can beat Braylon Braxton and his dual-threat ability. With at least two wins in the non-conference and potentially three, Northern Illinois is in a prime position to go to a bowl game again.

Conference play will get off to a rough state. While Northern Illinois will be better this year, they cannot hang with the Toledo offense. Another loss will come two weeks later against the other MAC favorite Ohio. Kurtis Rourke will find all the weak spots in this secondary and get Ohio a win. In between, Northern Illinois is going to defeat Akron.

Three of the next four games are against the Michigan MAC schools. All three games will need to follow a similar pattern. The first is to stop the run. Samson Evans is the biggest threat out of Eastern Michigan, but with the two defensive tackles, he can be stopped. Second, Northern Illinois needs to have a few big plays. This is where Trayvon Rudolph comes in. None of the Michigan MAC schools have a way to compete with the big plays. Finally, they need to limit turnovers, if they do that, there are three wins, with a win over Ball State in between. This means going into the final week of the season the Huskies already have seven wins, and cap it off with an eighth over Kent State.

Why Northern Illinois Can Not Win 5.5 Games

Unlike much of the MAC, Northern Illinois can afford one bad game. They just cannot afford multiple like last year. Northern Illinois can afford a rough non-conference slate. They will only be favorites in one game, but could easily win three. If they win just one game, it does make things difficult though. That means they have to win five in the conference, and they will be heavy underdogs in two of them.

They will most likely lose to Toledo and Ohio, which leaves six games to win five games. There are two places in which Northern Illinois can easily lose and miss their goal of a bowl game. First is Akron. Akron destoryed the Northern Illinois defense last year. DJ Irons ran all over the place and Northern Illinois could not stop anything. If Akron can do that again, Northern Illinois will not have the firepower to keep up.

Second is Central Michigan. Central Michigan won this game last year. Bert Emanuel Jr. is a great quarterback. Not only can he run, 124 yards per game on the ground last year, he is starting to show he has a great arm. One of the biggest concerns for Northern Illinois will be the collective of the defensive backs. They have a solid safety and top corner, but if a quarterback can pick on the slot corner  there will be success. Emanuel can extend plays which will allow guys to get open. If he can do that enough, even sub-par recievers will have a huge game against the Huskies.

Final Northern Illinois Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick

Northern Illinois has enough talent to win a lot of games this year. The question is can Thomas Hammock and the staff get them to their goals. Last year, the Huskies consistently fell short, but this could be a different year. The Huskies open the season 2-2 in non-conference play. They will win two of three against the Michigan MAC teams and get wins over Ball State, Akron, and Kent State. That gets them to seven wins, and the over hits.

Final Northern Illinois Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick: Over 5.5 (-128)