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It is the College Football Playoff Semi-Finals as Ohio State takes on Texas in the Cotton Bowl Classic. It is time to continue our college football odds series with an Ohio State-Texas prediction and pick.
Ohio State-Texas Last Game – Matchup History
Ohio State comes into the game at 12-2. In the regular season, they lost just twice, falling to Oregon by one point, and then again in the last game of the year to Michigan by three. That would cost them a chance at the Big Ten Title game. Still, they would make the playoffs, and host Tennessee to start, winning 42-17. Then, Ohio State would get their revenge on Oregon, winning 41-21 in the Rose Bowl. Meanwhile, Texas is 13-2 on the year. Their only regular season loss was to Georgia, and Texas would fall to Georgia again in the SEC title game. Still, they beat Clemson in the first round, and then Texas escaped a double-overtime game with Arizona State at the Peach Bowl.
Overall Series: This will be the fourth time Ohio State and Texas have faced, with Texas winning two of the three. The last meeting was the 2009 Fiesta Bowl. It was a top-ten battle in that game, with Texas scoring on a touchdown pass from Colt McCoy with 16 seconds left to win 24-21.
Here are the Ohio State-Texas College Football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Playoff Semifinals Odds: Ohio State-Texas Odds
Ohio State: -5.5 (-122)
Moneyline: -235
Texas: +5.5 (+100)
Moneyline: +190
Over: 53.5 (-110)
Under: 53.5 (-110)
How to Watch Ohio State vs. Texas
Time: 7:30 PM ET/ 4:30 PM PT
TV: ESPN
*Watch college football LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why Ohio State Could Cover The Spread/Win
Ohio State is sixth in the nation in points per game, while sitting 22nd in yards per game. They are 49th in the running game, but sit 28th in the passing game. Will Howards leads the way for Ohio State. He has completed 72.6 percent of his passes for 3,490 yards and 32 touchdowns. He has been intercepted just nine times. Further, he has seven rushing touchdowns.
Jeremiah Smith leads the way in receiving. He has brought in 70 receptions for 1,224 yards and 14 scores this year. Meanwhile, Emeka Egbuka has 70 receptions for 896 yards and ten scores. Finally, Carnell Tate has 43 receptions for 611 yards and four scores. In the running game, it is the combination of TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins. Henderson has run for 825 yards and 10 scores this year, while Judkins has 924 yards and 10 scores.
Ohio State is first in the nation in opponent points per game, while sitting first in opponent yards per game. They are fourth against the run and first against the pass. JT Tuimoloau has been great. He has ten sacks this year, with three pass breakups and two forced fumbles.
Why Texas Could Cover The Spread/Win
Texas is 15th in the nation in points per game, while sitting 12th in yards per game. They are 55th in the run, and 13th in the pass. Quinn Ewers leads the way for the Longhorns. He has completed 66.5 percent of his passes for 3,189 yards and 29 touchdowns. He does have 11 interceptions but does have two rushing touchdowns.
In the receiving game, Matthew Golden has led the way. He has 56 receptions for 936 yards and nine scores. Meanwhile, Isiah Bond has 33 receptions for 532 yards and five scores. Finally, FUnnar Helm has 744 yards this year and seven scores as a tight end. In the running game, Quintrevion Wisner leads the way with 1,018 yards and five scores. Further, Jaydon Blue has 714 yards and eight scores this year.
Texas is third in the nation in opponent points per game, while sitting third in opponent yards per game. They are 12th against the run while sitting third against the pass. Jahdae Barron has been great. He is fourth on the team in tackles, while having a sack, 11 pass breakups, five interceptions, and a fumble recovery.
Final Ohio State-Texas Prediction & Pick
There are a few key factors in determining the outcome of this game. Both teams rely on the pass, so the sack rate will be important. Ohio State is first in the nation in defensive sacks rate, and eighth in protecting their quarterback. Texas is 15th in the nation in defensive sack rate, and 68th in protecting their quarterback. The second will be red zone scoring. These are the top two red zone defenses this year, but Ohio State is 47th in red zone scoring, while Texas is 108th. Finally, there are giveaways. Texas is 86th in the nation in giveaways, while Ohio State is 19th. Take the Buckeyes in this one.
Final Ohio State-Texas Prediction & Pick: Ohio State -5.5 (-122)
