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The Southeast Missouri State RedHawks are set to face the Murray State Racers. Check out our college basketball odds series, which includes our SE Missouri State Murray State prediction, odds, and pick.
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The Murray State Racers, at 28-2, are going to make the NCAA Tournament even if they don't win the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament. However, winning the conference tournament will prevent the Racers from losing a few seed lines, which they would definitely do if they fall here or in the semifinals. If Murray State makes the OVC Tournament final, it will almost certainly play a very good team which — if it is able to beat the Racers — would gain respect from the NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Committee. Accordingly, Murray State's seed would not take a significant hit.
Murray State's great season under coach Matt McMahon has been equal parts dominance and resourcefulness. The Racers have usually sped past the opposition. They recently drilled rival Belmont in late February and showed against the Bruins how high their ceiling is. However, Murray State has also been able to win the kinds of games in which very little goes right and the Racers have to scramble from behind in the final five minutes. Murray State has won multiple games this season in which it trailed at the five-minute mark of regulation or later.
One of these games just happened to be against SE Missouri State on Feb. 26 on the road. The Racers were in big trouble and trailed near the three-minute mark of regulation, but they dug out a 70-68 win and were able to complete a perfect regular season in the Ohio Valley Conference, one of a select few teams to pull off that feat in the regular season. South Dakota State in the Summit League is another such example. Keep that in mind when weighing the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament odds and making your SE Missouri State Murray State prediction.
You might not think much of SE Missouri State, but the RedHawks put a scare into Murray, and even though they are 14-17, you might be aware that this is March, when crazy things happen. We almost saw a No. 1 seed lose to an opponent with a losing record in Friday's conference tournament action. North Carolina A&T very nearly toppled No. 1 seed Longwood in the Big South Conference Tournament. A&T had two free throws with 13.8 seconds left in a 63-63 tie. The Aggies missed both free throws and lost in overtime, but the point is that records can be tossed out at this time of year. You know the college basketball odds often get smashed. Remember that when making an SE Missouri State Murray State pick.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the SE Missouri State-Murray State odds:
Ohio Valley Conference Tournament Odds: SE Missouri State-Murray State Odds
SE Missouri State: +14.5 (-110)
Murray State: -14.5 (-110)
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Over: 148 (-110)
Under: 148 (-110)
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Why SE Missouri State Could Cover the Spread
The spread is large, and SEMO knows it can play with Murray State after the Feb. 26 game went down to the wire. Lower seeds get feisty in conference tournaments. Murray State might try to coast through this game and save its energy for the semifinals.
Why Murray State Could Cover the Spread
The Racers are 28-2. SEMO is 14-17. Murray State knows SEMO can play and won't take the RedHawks for granted.
Final SE Missouri State-Murray State Prediction & Pick
Murray State could win this game by 30, but the first game of a conference tournament often fails to bring forth a top seed's very best game. Murray will go into energy conservation mode and glide through this game with an 18- or 20-point spread most of the way. SEMO will score some late baskets for a backdoor cover.
Final SE Missouri State-Murray State Pick: SE Missouri State +14.5
