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The Baltimore Orioles will close out their four-game series with the Tampa Bay Rays on Monday at Tropicana Field. We're here to share our MLB odds series, make an Orioles-Rays prediction and pick, and show you how to watch.
Orioles-Rays Projected Starters
Corbin Burnes vs. Ryan Pepiot
Corbin Burnes (6-2) with a 2.26 ERA
Last Start: Burnes had another excellent outing, going seven innings while allowing one earned run on four hits while striking out five in a win over the Toronto Blue Jays.
2024 Road Splits: Burnes is 3-1 with a 3.09 ERA over five road starts.
Ryan Pepiot (4-2) with a 3.96 ERA
Last Start: Pepiot went six innings while allowing three earned runs on six hits while striking out eight in a win over the Miami Marlins.
2024 Home Splits: Pepiot has struggled at home, going 1-2 with a 5.24 ERA in front of the faithful at Tropicana Field.
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Orioles-Rays Odds
Baltimore Orioles: -1.5 (+114)
Moneyline: -156
Tampa Bay Rays: +1.5 (-137)
Moneyline: +132
Over: 7.5 (-104)
Under: 7.5 (-118)
How to Watch Orioles vs. Rays
Time: 6:50 PM ET/3:50 PM PT
TV: FS1
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why The Orioles Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Orioles are solid all around. Significantly, they are eighth in batting average, fifth in runs, and first in home runs and slugging percentage. Baltimore is only 17th in on-base percentage. Overall, they have some of the best hitters in the world making their mark across the league.
Gunnar Henderson has been an excellent leadoff hitter. Currently, he is batting .263 with 20 home runs, 45 RBIs, and 49 runs. Catcher Adley Rutschman has been amazing. Substantially, he is hitting .300 with 12 home runs, 43 RBIs, and 34 runs. Anthony Santander is hitting with power but struggling overall. Ultimately, he is batting .227 with 13 home runs, 36 RBIs, and 33 runs. Ryan Mountcastle is having a consistent season. So far, he is hitting .281 with 11 home runs, 31 RBIs, and 34 runs.
The Orioles are also pitching well. Amazingly, they are third in baseball in team ERA. Their starters are doing an effective job, and their bullpen is finishing things off. Now, they hope to do it again in the series finale.
The Orioles will cover the spread if their bats continue to spring to life. Then, they need another good outing from Burnes.
Why The Rays Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Rays have struggled to hit this season. So far, they are 18th in batting average, 20th in on-base percentage, 24th in runs, 27th in slugging percentage, and just 30th in home runs. Some of their best players are not getting the job done. Therefore, it is costing them many games and they are still having outings where they either score three runs or barely score anything at all.
Yandy Diaz is doing everything he can. Specifically, he went 2 for 4 on Saturday when the Rays mustered no runs. It's been a different story for Brandon Lowe. Unfortunately, he has not done well in his short time this season and even struck out twice on Saturday. Randy Arozarena is having the worst season of his career. Sadly, it keeps getting worse, and he only managed a five-game hitting streak before doing nothing Saturday. Isaac Paredes is having a good season. Yet, he can only do so much by himself. Paredes is hitting .288 with 10 home runs, 37 RBIs, and 27 runs.
The pitching staff has struggled this season. Unfortunately, they are just 24th in team ERA. Their starters have also struggled, and their relievers have not done well.
The Rays will cover the spread if their bats can spring to life and get some runners across the plate. Then, they need a good outing from Pepiot.
Final Orioles-Rays Prediction & Pick
The Orioles are second in baseball in run-line record, with a mark of 38-25. Conversely, the Rays are the second-worst team in baseball in the run-line record, with a mark of 26-38. The Orioles also have a road run-line record of 20-10, while the Rays have a 15-12 run-line record. When the Orioles have been the favorites on the road, they had a run-line record of 12-9. Meanwhile, the Rays are just 2-7 against the spread when they have been the home team.
The Orioles have dominated this series after winning the first three games and holding the Rays to five total runs. Ultimately, this has kept them in second place, and now they have a chance to sweep all four games. The Rays have struggled in this series and throughout the season, unable to generate scoring or pitch well. Consequently, expect more of the same as Burnes cruises through this mediocre lineup and holds them down while the Baltimore bats do enough to win and cover the spread while sweeping the Rays.
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Final Orioles-Rays Prediction & Pick: Baltimore Orioles: -1.5 (+114)
