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The Baltimore Orioles continue their road trip through the American League East when they visit the Tampa Bay Rays after splitting a two-game set with the Blue Jays. The Orioles defeated the Rays in their series at Camden Yards this season, taking two of three games. The Orioles have an uncertain pitching situation this season, as varying reports leave us wondering who their starting pitcher will be. Kyle Bradish's start was pushed back on Thursday, which made people believe that he would start Game 1 against the Rays, but it now looks like they may skip his start entirely until it comes back around again in the rotation. We'll assume Cole Irvin starts on regular rest. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with an Orioles-Rays prediction and pick.
Orioles-Rays Projected Starters
Cole Irvin vs. Aaron Civale
Cole Irvin (5-2) with a 2.84 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP.
Last Start: vs Tampa Bay 6 1/3 IP, 1 SO, 8 H, 1 BB, 2 ER
2024 Road Splits: (2-1) with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP.
Aaron Civale (2-4) with a 5.37 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP.
Last Start: @ Baltimore 5 1/3 IP, 3 SO, 6 H, 1 BB, 1 ER
2024 Home Splits: (1-2) with a 4.45 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP.
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Orioles-Rays Odds
Baltimore Orioles: -1.5 (+138)
Moneyline: -116
Tampa Bay Rays: +1.5 (-166)
Moneyline: -102
Over: 8.5 (-106)
Under: 8.5 (-114)
How to Watch Orioles vs. Rays
Time: 6:50 PM ET/3:50 PM PT
Article Continues Below
TV: MASN2, Bally Sports Network
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why The Orioles Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Orioles can't go wrong with any of their starters this season, as it'd be nice for them to get Bradish back in this game, but Irvin also has scoreless outings in two of his last four. Irvin's numbers drop on the road, but he already shut down the Rays in his previous start with two earned runs over 6 1/3 innings.
The Orioles had won four games in a row over the Rays before dropping the final game of their first series. The rivalry returns to Tropicana Field for this series, but the Orioles succeeded there last season, winning two of three in July.
The Orioles are among the best offenses against right-handed pitchers this season, owning a .314 wOBA, which ranks ninth in the MLB. They have the potential to be even better, as they have a 35.7% hard-hit rate, which is best in the Majors.
Tropicana Field isn't the best-hitting ballpark, which explains why the Rays have one of the worst wOBAs at home this season. The Orioles could shut down the Rays in this game and need to create enough offense to come out on top.
Why The Rays Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Rays rank much lower in wOBA against left-handed pitchers. However, the entire MLB is hitting better against lefties this season. The Rays have a .308 wOBA against lefties, which isn't much worse than the Orioles mark against righties. Aaron Civale shut down the Orioles in his earlier start this season but didn't get enough run support in a 3-1 loss. The Rays have to hope to get more run support against an uncertain pitching rotation for the Orioles.
Final Orioles-Rays Prediction & Pick
The Rays have the sixth-worst hitting ballpark in the Majors, four spots better than Baltimore. The total went under in three of four games at Camden Yards this season, with the only game going over when Kyle Bradish and Taj Bradley didn't make it past the fourth inning. Irvin and Civale should perform much better in this game, and the Rays have an even worse hitting ballpark than the one that hosted those three previous games going under.
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Final Orioles-Rays Prediction & Pick: Under 8.5 (-114)
