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It would've been surprising at the start of the season, but the New England Patriots and San Francisco 49ers enter this Week 4 matchup with identical 2-1 records. It is time to continue our NFL odds series with a Patriots-49ers prediction and pick.
The Patriots began their season with a surprising victory over the Cincinnati Bengals. However, they've returned to earth after nearly defeating the Seattle Seahawks in their second game. The Patriots went to overtime with the Seahawks but came up short, 23-20. They mustered little offense last week, losing 24-3 to the New York Jets. The Patriots are projected as a bottom-five team this season, and it looks like they're quickly headed that way.
It's been the same story for the 49ers this season. They began the year with an encouraging victory over the Jets but dropped two straight disappointing results to the Minnesota Vikings and Los Angeles Rams. The 49ers must get healthy before they can think of returning to the Super Bowl, but they still have plenty of time to crawl out of this hole.
Here are the NFL odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NFL Odds: Patriots-49ers Odds
New England Patriots: +10.5 (-110)
Moneyline: +450
San Francisco 49ers: -10.5 (-110)
Moneyline: -600
Over: 40.5 (-110)
Under: 40.5 (-110)
How to Watch Patriots vs. 49ers
Time: 4:05 PM ET/1:05 PM PT
TV: FOX
Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)
Why The Patriots Could Cover The Spread/Win
The 49ers offensive attack can't get much better through three games. They've been performing as a top-five offense in the league, but sit 1-2 on the season and 1-2 against the spread. The 49ers' defense allowed just 27, 23, and 19 points, which makes their records surprising. However, if that trend continues in this game and San Francisco can't get away with a double-digit lead, the Patriots could sneak a backdoor cover here.
Why The 49ers Could Cover The Spread/Win
The 49ers desperately need a situation where they bounce back after a disappointing start to the season. The Patriots offer a perfect opportunity for that, as their defense is struggling to stay healthy and keep points off the board. The 49ers' biggest issue has been the absence of Christian McCaffrey, but they should succeed without him in this matchup.
Taking the 49ers to cover this spread is a bit concerning, as it crosses over a key football number. It's beneficial to get spreads underneath multiples of scoring plays, which means -9.5 would be better than -10.5. The spread being 10.5 forces the 49ers to win by more than a touchdown, extra point, and field goal. However, the Patriots' offense has been so bad that the 49ers should get the job done as long as their defense is anywhere near average.
The Patriots are ranked 31st in points per game and 32nd in yards. They are averaging 13.0 points and 246.3 yards. The Patriots are weary of giving the keys to first-round draft pick Drake Maye with their abysmal offensive line, but 102 yards per game from Jacoby Brissett is a difficult look.
Final Patriots-49ers Prediction & Pick
The 49ers offense has been clicking along despite injuries to some integral offensive pieces. They are averaging 24.3 points per game and 407.3 yards, which ranks third in the league. Brock Purdy has been a star again, putting the 49ers second in the NFL with 267.7 yards per game. The spread is high and the 49ers haven't been covering this season, but they'll get back on track here.
Final Patriots-49ers Prediction & Pick: 49ers -10.5 (-110)
